earticle

영어

The purpose of this study is to verify the anchoring effects and the influential relationships in the advanced research stage scheduling of defense acquisition program. To achieve this purpose, literature research on the rationality of decision-making, heuristics and biases, anchoring effects and defense acquisition program decision-making was implemented. Additionally, Field data from the advanced research stage scheduling after the establishment of Defense Acquisition Program Administration in 2006 were collected to verify if an anchoring effect was seen and its influence. The results of the study can be summarized as follows. The planned deployment time is anchored to the required deployment time, and the project period is anchored to planned deployment time. Available time and the administrative period between requirement decision and establishment of basic defense acquisition promotion plan, and overall administrative period and available time were highly correlated, but the administrative period between establishment of basic defense acquisition promotion plan and project start and available time did not correlate much. Thus, extra time within available time was used in the administrative period between requirement decision and establishment of basic defense acquisition promotion plan. Results of analyzing the influence of overall administrative period and overall business period on the delay of deployment time showed that the longer the overall administrative period takes, the greater the delay of deployment time occured.

한국어

본 연구의 목적은 방위력개선사업의 일정판단에서의 앵커링 효과와 영향관계를 실증하는 것이다. 이를 위해 인간 의사결정의 합리성, 휴리스틱과 바이어스, 앵커링 효과 선행연구 및 방위력개선사업에서의 일정판단과 일정계획전략에 대한 문헌연구를 실시하였다. 또한 2006년 방위사업청 개청 이후 실시된 선행연구단계의 일정판단 실적 데이터를 수집하고 통계분석을 통해 가설을 검증하였다. 일정판단에서의 앵커링 효과, 가용기간과 일정판단의 상관관계 및 일정판단 결과가 전력화시기 지연에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석하고 학문적·실무적 의의를 도출하였다.