earticle

영어

This paper estimates and forecasts the Busan’s exports and imports using the monthly data for years 2000-2014. To do this, this paper uses the several seasonal multiplicative ARIMA models. Among several ARIMA models, seasonal multiplicative ARIMA model (1,0,1)×(1,0,1)12 and (1,0,1)×(1,0,1)4 are selected as the most appropriate models for the estimation of exports and imports by AIC, SC and Hannan-Quin information criterion a, respectively. According to the forecasting values of the selected seasonal multiplicative ARIMA model (1,0,1)×(1,0,1)12 and (1,0,1)×(1,0,1)4, Busan’s exports and imports will increase steadily annually for 2013-2020, but there will be some volatile variations monthly due to the seasonality. Thus, to forecast the future Busan’s exports and imports and to develop them, we need to use seasonal multiplicative ARIMA model (1,0,1)×(1,0,1)12 and (1,0,1)×(1,0,1)4 for the estimation of exports and imports,