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Demand and Supply Curves for Individual Stocks, Financial Crises, and the Incompleteness of Arbitrage

초록

영어

Using complete order books from the Korea Stock Exchange for a four-year period including the 1997 Asian financial crisis, we observe (not estimate) complete limit order demand and supply schedules for individual stocks. Both have demonstrably finite elasticities, indicating that individual stocks exhibit economically large private valuation heterogeneity across investors. Both elasticities fall markedly, by about 40%, with the crisis and remain depressed long after the stock market recovers to its pre-crisis level – consistent with a lingering post-crisis impairment in information diffusion. Superimposed upon this common long-term pattern, individual stocks’ demand and supply elasticities correlate negatively at daily frequencies. That is, whenever a stock exhibits unusually elastic demand, it tends simultaneously to exhibit unusually inelastic supply, and vice versa. Moreover, if demand is flat relative to supply at the open, subsequent intraday returns are higher. We propose that limit order books react to trading patterns indicating possible private information: aggressive orders on one side of the order book increases its elasticity, but this elevates perceived adverse selection risk on the other side of the order book, inducing order cancellations that reduce its elasticity. Arbitrage may thus limit its own profits by steepening the price schedule on the opposite side of the market. If rational market participants cannot distinguish informed from uninformed order surges, this steepening feedback may similarly magnify price fluctuations unrelated to fundamentals.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Relation to Previous Studies
 3. Data and Elasticity Measurement
  3.1. Market Microstructure
  3.2. Trade and Quote Records Data
  3.3. Demand and Supply Schedules
  3.4. Measuring Elasticities
  3.5. Limit Order Book Range
  3.6. Whole and Cored Elasticities
 4. Empirical Results
  4.1. Magnitudes
  4.2. Harmony at Low Frequencies
  4.3. Counterpoint at Higher Frequencies?
  4.4. Panel Regressions
  4.5. Elasticities of Demand and Supply Schedules and Future Returns
  4.6. Robustness Checks
 5. Conclusions
 References
 Figure
 Table

저자정보

  • Jung-Wook Kim Assistant Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
  • Jason Lee Associate Professor of Accounting at the University of Alberta, Edmonton Alberta, Canada
  • Randall Morck Stephen A. Jarislowsky Distinguished Professor of Finance and University Professor at the University of Alberta, Edmonton Alberta, Canada

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