원문정보
초록
영어
This paper analyzes the behavior of the CBOT seat prices for the post-1975 period. Based on the time-series property of seat returns and the empirical link between seat returns and economic factors, we develop a conditional multi-factor model, where the price of risks are assumed to be linearly generated from the ARIMA estimates of the factor values. Particularly, we find the close short-run and long-run link between the CBOT seat price and CBOT trading volume. Importantly, the CBOT seat returns appear to exhibit significant power in predicting stock market returns, the growth of CBOT trading volume, the growth of industrial production, and interest rate. Based on the dynamic pricing model including three factors by Fama and French, we find that excess seat returns are time-varying with some expected factor variables, such as expected size premium ( SMBe ), expected CBOT trading volume (VOLe ), and expected interest rate ( INTe ). Seat returns are particularly sensitive to the size premium shock ( SMBu ). We conclude that the pricing mechanism of CBOT seats is similar to that of a well-diversified stock market portfolio.
목차
I. Introduction
II. Linkage of Seat Prices to Economic Fundamentals
1. Dynamic Long-run Relationship between CBOT Volume and Seat Prices
2. Permanent-Transitory Decomposition
3. Causality Analysis between CBOT Seat Returns and Economic Factors
III. Economic Factors and Expected Seat Return
1. Identification of Economic Factors
2. Dynamic Asset Pricing Model
IV. Evidence on the Relationship between Seat Return and Fundamental Factors
V. Conclusion
References