earticle

영어

Nowadays, the accounting information distortion of listed company is generally common in the market. It has caused adverse effects to the enterprise itself and even the development of the securities market. In order to solve this problem, domestic and foreign scholars have done a series of researches from different perspectives and create a lot of detection model to identify financial reporting fraud more correctly. As far as we are concerned, these models’ index selection, calculation, prediction and application are not so satisfying and few efficient recognition models can be applied generally. In this paper, we combine the method of principal component analysis with logistic regression method. Then we select variables from the financial data that reflect the profitability, turnover, the establishment of the enterprise and some other perspectives. This accounting information distortion detection model is created by improving the method and index selection which has a higher correct recognition rate. We have chosen the 2012 financial statements from 56 firms for sample and the forecasting accuracy of the model reached 92.86%. We can get that it has obvious advantages compared to the predicted results from simple logistic regression model.