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논문검색

Neural Network Model for the Risk Prediction in Cold Chain Logistics

초록

영어

This study investigates environment sensitive and perishable products (ESPPs) logistics problem, which is called cold chain logistics problem (CCLs). Based on a comprehensive literature review, we found that there is much room to improve regarding of the risks management in cold chain logistics, that is, the development of a comprehensive cold chain logistics design methodology should considered uncertainty sources and risk exposures. In this study, we propose a neural network model to illustrate the problems. Firstly, the paper develops input indicators at different points in cold chain logistics to examine the effects of environment fluctuations including temperature control, humidity monitoring, the temperature interruption time and electric vehicle mapping, etc; secondly, the improved neural network algorithm can achieve model convergence, including the increase of momentum term, the adjustment of learning rate and the change of error function. At last, through simulation, this study shows that comprehensive risk prediction of cold chain logistics will be calculated based on the input indicators using the improved neural network algorithm, and the predictive value is accurate. So not only the analyzing of kinds of cold chain logistics indicators can be realized through the Neural Network model, but we can take priorities resorting to the predictive results accordingly.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Literature Review
 3. The Neural Network Predictive Model
 3.1. The Standard Neural Network Model
 3.2. The Neural Network Algorithm
 4. The Improved BP Neural Network Algorithm
  4.1. Increasing Momentum Term and the Adjustment of Learning Rate [27]
  4.2. Transforming the Input Data and the Design of Hidden Layer
  4.3. Changing the Error Function and Transformation Function
 5. Neural Network-based Simulation on Risk Prediction in CCLM
  5.1. Simulation Background
  5.2. Network Learning and Testing
 6. Conclusions
 Acknowledgement
 References

저자정보

  • Weiyang Xu School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, China
  • Zhenji Zhang School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, China
  • Daqing Gong School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, China
  • Xiaolan Guan School of Economics and Management, Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication, China

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