원문정보
초록
영어
The purpose of this paper is to re-evaluate arguments that relate states’ power to the likelihood of interstate conflict, by highlighting the conditional effect of preferences on the relationship between power and conflict. With respect to the onset of interstate conflict, power parity is likely to increase the chance of conflict and this effect increases as states’ preferences become divergent. However, when states have very similar preferences, power parity may not significantly increase the probability of conflict due to significant preference similarity. With respect to the growing power of China and its implication to the prospect of conflict in East Asia, this study provides us an explanation. Simply put, the prospect of peace and conflict in East Asia can be explained based on preference convergence or divergence among nation states in this region, to great extent. If China decreases preference gap with other neighboring countries, we are less likely to observe violent clashes in this region. On the other hand, if preference gap between China and other countries widens, the chance of conflict will increase. In this regard, this paper highlights the importance of states’ preferences in studies of power and conflict.
목차
Power and Conflict
Power Transition and Preference Divergence
Preference Changes in East Asia
Conclusion
References