제약조건하의 승수효과분석은 왜 필요한가? - 예산 재분배를 통한 투입ㆍ산출승수를 중심으로 -


Why Do We Need the Multiplier Analysis under Constraints? - Based on the Input-Output Multipliers through the Budget Redistribution -


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Basically, the multiplier effects derived from the models of IO(input- output), OO(output-output), and FF(final demand-final output) between total output( x ), final output ( o ), and final demand( f ) are based on the unrestricted(or unconstrained) conditions in financing constraints. However, in the real economic activity, if a new injection program focused on sector  needs a reduction of expenditure in the remaining sectors, for i ≠ j , so as to maintain the total budget constraints of the government. On the basis of the latest research findings and results from the multiplier analysis under constraints in the recent economic literature, the specific objectives of this paper can be summed up as follows. (1) We testify the importance and necessity for the multiplier analysis under constraints through the limitations of the multiplier effects in the models of I(input), IO, OO, and FF. (2) We derive the model for the multiplier analysis under constraints and show the economic characteristics and usefulness of the model developed by the author. (3) We empirically calculated the multiplier effects under constraints by endogenous sectors through the output requirements for final demand(or Leontief inverse Cf ) from the raw data of the 2010 Input-Output Tables of Korea. Moreover, the Pearson correlation coefficients(PCC), rp , and the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients(SRCC), rs , are calculated between the constrained multipliers and the decompositions of effects.


 1. 서론
  1.1. 연구의 배경
  1.2. 연구의 목적과 범위
 2. 제약조건하의 승수효과분석의 필요성
 3. 예산제약(예산 재분배)을 통한 투입⋅산출승수
  3.1. 양의 산출효과와 음의 대체효과
  3.2. 양의 내부효과와 음의 외부효과
 4. 경험적 사례 연구
 5. 요약 및 결론


  • 김호언 Gim, Ho Un. 계명대학교 경제금융학과 교수


자료제공 : 네이버학술정보

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