earticle

영어

This research analyzes the effects of factors on the demands for outbound to the countries such as Japan, China, the United States of America, Thailand, Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, the countries preferred by many Koreans. The factors for this research are (1) economic variables such as Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), which could have influences on outbound tourism and exchange rate and (2) unpredictable events such as diseases, financial crisis and terrors. Regression analysis was used to identify relationship based on the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010. The results of the analysis show that both exchange rate and KOSPI have impacts on the demands for outbound travel. In the case of travels to the United States of America and Philippines, Korean tourists usually have particular purposes such as studying, visiting relatives, playing golf or honeymoon, thus they are less influenced by the exchange rate. Moreover, Korean tourists tend not to visit particular locations for some time when shock reaction happens. As the demands for outbound travels are different from country to country accompanied by economic variables and shock variables, differentiated measure to should be considered to come close to the target numbers of tourists by switching as well as creating the demands. For further study we plan to build outbound tourism forecasting models using Artificial Neural Networks.