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영어

The meteorological community has limited understanding of how users interpret forecast information and use it in decision making. So Morss (2010) conducted a survey and result of the survey can help provide information that user can interpret and use effectively. The threshold decision question of the survey asked respondents their probabilistic forecast threshold for taking protective action against the adverse weather. And the respondents have different probability thresholds and selected a somewhat higher threshold than 50% of forecasts chance. But probability threshold to maximize the forecast`s satisfaction value score was lower threshold than 50%. So in this paper, respondent’s distribution from the survey was changed to confirm whether the group’s satisfaction index can be improve or not. A concept of user’s satisfaction index for the estimation of the forecast value of dichotomous events was introduced by Lee (2010). And group’s satisfaction index was defined a sum of each user’s satisfaction index. We used a forecast and observed data of Seoul, Korea produced by Korea Meteorological Administration since 2002. In conclusion, a satisfaction index of group who use probabilistic weather forecast can be improved by changing decision threshold of users than improving forecast accuracy.