원문정보
A Study on the Jeju-do Regional Economic Forecasting Model
초록
영어
The purpose of this study is to construct the Jeju-do Regional Economic Forecasting Model. We analyze the Jeju-do economy and examine the inter-sectoral relationships in the region. This model consists of seven blocks-production block, employment block, wage and price level block, financial block, public finance block, foreign sector block, and other block. This model also consists of seventeen behavioral equations, three identity equations so that the model is the simultaneous equation system of twenty structural equations. We consider Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) as the estimation method. We rely on the Root Mean Squared Percent Error(RMSE%) in the evaluation of the models. And this model show the satisfactory levels of RMSE%, excepting import. After identifying the best model structure in term of the RMSE%, we perform policy simulation to measure the effects of three exogenous shocks on the Jeju-do regional economy; exchange rate shock, foreigner tourist shock, and real national income shock. The result of the policy simulation is consistent with what various macroeconomic theories predicts.
목차
1. 서론
2. 이론적 고찰
2.1. 지역경제예측모형의 분류
2.2. 연립방정식모형의 이론적 배경
2.3. 선행연구 고찰
3. 제주경제 예측모형 개발
3.1. 모형의 개요
3.2. 모형의 설정
3.3. 추정결과
4. 모형의 평가 및 정책모의실험
4.1. 모형의 평가 개요
4.2. 모형의 예측력 평가
4.3. 정책모의실험
5. 결론
주
참고문헌