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제주지역 경제예측모형 구축에 관한 연구

원문정보

A Study on the Jeju-do Regional Economic Forecasting Model

고봉현, 강기춘, 강연실

피인용수 : 0(자료제공 : 네이버학술정보)

초록

영어

The purpose of this study is to construct the Jeju-do Regional Economic Forecasting Model. We analyze the Jeju-do economy and examine the inter-sectoral relationships in the region. This model consists of seven blocks-production block, employment block, wage and price level block, financial block, public finance block, foreign sector block, and other block. This model also consists of seventeen behavioral equations, three identity equations so that the model is the simultaneous equation system of twenty structural equations. We consider Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) as the estimation method. We rely on the Root Mean Squared Percent Error(RMSE%) in the evaluation of the models. And this model show the satisfactory levels of RMSE%, excepting import. After identifying the best model structure in term of the RMSE%, we perform policy simulation to measure the effects of three exogenous shocks on the Jeju-do regional economy; exchange rate shock, foreigner tourist shock, and real national income shock. The result of the policy simulation is consistent with what various macroeconomic theories predicts.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 이론적 고찰
  2.1. 지역경제예측모형의 분류
  2.2. 연립방정식모형의 이론적 배경
  2.3. 선행연구 고찰
 3. 제주경제 예측모형 개발
  3.1. 모형의 개요
  3.2. 모형의 설정
  3.3. 추정결과
 4. 모형의 평가 및 정책모의실험
  4.1. 모형의 평가 개요
  4.2. 모형의 예측력 평가
  4.3. 정책모의실험
 5. 결론
 주
 참고문헌

저자정보

  • 고봉현 Ko, Bong-Hyun. 제주발전연구원 책임연구원
  • 강기춘 Kang, Gi-Choon. 제주대학교 경제학과 교수
  • 강연실 Kang, Yeon-Sil. 제주발전연구원 연구원

참고문헌

자료제공 : 네이버학술정보

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