earticle

영어

The commercial parametric cost estimating models are used extensively to arrive at cost estimates in the early acquisition process. However, these models have many restrictions because they are developed based on foreign research and development (R&D) data. For this reason, this study is conducted to discover the cost estimation model suitable for the environment of the Korean defense industry while many studies are in process. In this study, a parametric R&D cost-estimating model for missile system was developed with Korean historical data. To develop a parametric cost-estimating model, the following jobs were performed. First, the seven-step model development process was suggested as appropriate to the Korean defense industry. The missile as a weapon system was defined as a general WBS to establish the model frame. Historical data was obtained from historic R&D and analyzed. Moreover, various statistical analysis methods had been studied to improve the predictability and stability of the estimate in each WBS. The cost estimating relationship (CER), factor-estimating relationship (FER), and case-based reasoning relationship (CBR) inference methods are applied for each WBS. Two cost calibration factors for technology level and the number of prototype were developed. In conclusion, this study is meaningful as it is the first attempt to develop a parametric R&D cost-estimating model using the Korean historical data. The development process and methodologies suggested in this study will be useful to develop a future Korean version of cost-estimating model.