earticle

영어

This paper tried to discuss the trade deficit cause of US imbalance in the view of trade effect of US production structure. So we analyze the trade effect of US service production and its relation with payment imbalance by way of designing theory model of two industries, i.e. service and goods production, statistical analysis and regression method. The theory research and model analysis show that the nontrade character of service product induced US economy to the growth pattern of anti-trade, during the time of American industry structural adjustment which biased to service production. According to the US statistical data, the empirical results show that the tendency to service industry has the anti-trade effect, which means that the export rate of product in the comparative advantage industry is lower than the comparative disadvantage industry. At mean time, there is pro-trade effect in goods consumption, which may be seen from the coefficients of the marginal goods import tendency and goods import demand elasticity of income. Or the US goods import demand didn’t decline with the domestic industrial structural trends to services. The two opposite strengths can lead the speed of export increase slower than that of import increase and result in trade deficit. The regression equation ordinary least square tells us that there is Granger causality relationship between US service product and US goods trade deficit. When the service increase rate is higher than that of goods, goods trade deficit become more.