earticle

영어

The natural vacancy rate, which is a similar concept with the natural unemployment rate in labor economy, implies various market friction factors in real estate market interrupt market clearing process. This paper estimates natural vacancy rate of office market in Seoul, and investigates the relationship between real vacancy rate and rent growth. For estimating natural vacancy rate, time-invariant model and time-varying model(Hodrick-Prescott Filter) are used. Although we cannot estimate natural vacancy rates in a part of small office market because increasing vacancy rate do not cause decreasing rents, estimated natural vacancy rates with time-invariant model are 7.8% in Gangnam District, 9.1% in CBD, 5.0% in Mapo & Yeouido District, and average 4.0% in Seoul. Estimated vacancy rates with time-varying model are convergent to real vacancy rates.