레온티에프 승수의 過大推定에 관한 代案 연구- 投入·産出模型의 “일반적 관계”를 중심으로 -


An Alternative Study on Overestimation of the Leontief Multiplier - With Attention to"the General Relation "of the Input-Output Model -


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The concept of net multipliers, as introduced by Oosterhaven and Stelder(2002), accepts outputs as entries instead of final demand by multiplying ordinary multipliers by the final demand ratio over the sector's output in order to avoid overestimation and double-counting impacts. The idea of accepting outputs as entries is novel and remarkable but it appears that the concept of net multipliers had been developed based on the assumption that the Leontief inverse can be multiplied by the total output. In this note, we illustrate that the Leontief inverse may only be multiplied by the final demand and the multiplication of by does not make sense. It is because there is noconsecutive connectionsbetween and that the inverse may not be multiplied by. Gim and Kim(1998) proposed the general relation between the total direct and indirect input requirements matrix for a unit of final demand and the total direct and indirect input requirements matrix for a unit of gross output. And then we alternatively derived new multipliers based on the matrix that can solve consecutive connections problem in interindustry interdependence very naturally.


 1. 서론
  1.1 문제의 제기
  1.2 연구의 목적과 범위
 2. 산업연관 균형체계와 투입·산출승수
 3. 승수효과의 과대추정과 이중계산
 4. “일반적 관계” 를 통한 代案的승수의 유도
  4.1 “순승수” 개념의 오류와 “일반적 관계”
  4.2 Γf행렬을 통한 산업연관승수
  4.3 Γw행렬을 통한 산업연관승수
 5. 결론


  • 김호언 Gim, Ho Un. 계명대학교 경제학과 교수


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