원문정보
A Research on Process of Estimation about Frequency and Loss of Risk by distribution of Probability
초록
영어
Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social, natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.
목차
1. 서론
2. 선행연구
2.1 리스크 분석 방법
2.2 리스크 확률 분포
2.3 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션
2.4 적합도 검정
3. 연구의 설계
3.1 연구 방법의 설계
3.2 연구 가설 설정
3.3 연구 대상기관 선정 및 연구대상 설계
3.4 기초 데이터에 대한 통계검정
4. 시뮬레이션과 실행
4.1 우심피해사례
4.2 결항피해사례
5. 통계분포의 검정 (K-S 검정)
5.1 우심피해사례
5.2 결항피해사례
6. 추정손실액 계산
6.1 우심 피해사례
6.2 결항피해사례
7. 연구 결론
참고문헌
