earticle

영어

「AHP」model, which is for determining the priority of alternatives through pairwise comparisons between elements constructing decision hierarchy, is a very widely used decision-making tool. However,「AHP」has a limitation for selecting long-term technology alternatives. In the cases of projects that are necessary long lead time until realization of them,「AHP」dose not have a consideration of external impacts such as economical, political, or technological changes. Lead time can make the outputs or values of developing projects different from what are planned and expected at the beginning of development.
To solve this limitation of 「AHP」, we constructed scenario in order to consider future external impacts in the process of determining the priority of technology alternatives and integrated it into「AHP」. A new model is called「EHP」External-impact Hierarchy Process) J has been developed in this study. This 'EHP J can increase the precision of decision making and is shown it by using a numerical example.