Prediction of Travel Population among Japan, China and Korea



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Today, the human population size moving from international tourism is rapidly expanding. The 21st century is known to be major era of human interaction, and is spreading to a global scope.
As cases studies Japan, China and South Korea (hereafter abbreviated as the three countries) tourism growth has increased rapidly, which has great significance in the tourism world, and is changing the composition of tourism’s traditional world. The expansion of the travel population among the three countries has maintained a high growth rate for seven years since the beginning of the 21st century except for 2003 - the year of SARS. The travel population among three countries in 2006 was 13.94 million people; up to near doubling the 7.55 million people from 2000. It seems that the travel population among the three countries will increase continuously for the mid to long term, as long as the peaceful state of national relations and the international society environment of the three countries doesn’t change.
This research makes the international travel population among the three countries a research topic, constructs the forecasting model, and forecasts the international travel population among three countries.
According to the one of the forecast results, the predictive values of the mutual travel population among Japan, China and South Korea are 13.36 million people in 2007, 15.77 million people in 2010, 19.76 million people in 2015 and 23.76 million people in 2020.
Regarding the forecast of the mutual traveler number of 2010 among the three countries, the governments of the three countries expect 17 million people (based on the Hokkaido declaration of tourism minister meeting of Japan, China and South Korea in 2006) and the predictive value of this model is 15.77 million people. It is thought that the possibility of achieving the government’s forecast is high near the predictive value of this research. The predictive value of this research in 2015 after the five years is about 20 million people. This means the mutual travel population among the three countries will increase by 3 million people in 5 years. In addition, it will increase by 3.76 million people in 2020 after five years, by reaching a total of 23.76 million people. In other words, it is expected to increase by 3 to 4 million people every 5 years until 2020.


今日において、人的移動による国際観光人口の規模が急速に拡大されて、21 世紀は人類の大交流時代だといわれるほど、地球範囲に広がっている。本研究では事例研究とした日本、中国、韓国(以下、日中韓と略す)三国の急速な観光発展は世界観光の中で大きな意義をもっており、従来の世界観光構図を変えつつある。日中韓三国観光交流人口の拡大は21 世紀初期7年間以来SARS 発生の2003 年を除いて、高い成長率を維持してきた。2006 年の中日韓三国交流人口は1,394 万人であるが、それが2000年の755 万人より倍増に近いことである。中長期にわたって、日中韓三国の観光交流人口は日中韓三国の国家関係と国際社会環境の平和な状態下であれば、継続して増加していくだろうと思われる。
本研究は日中韓三国の国際観光交流人口を研究課題にし、予測モデルを構築し、日中韓三国の国際観光人口を予測しょうとする。予測した結果のひとつ、日中韓相互訪問観光人口の予測値は2007 年1,336 万人、2010 年1,577 万人、2015 年1,976 万人、2020 年2,376 万人となっている。2010 に日中韓三国相互訪問者の予測に関して、日中韓三国政府が予測した1,700 万人(2006 年日中韓三国観光大臣会合北海道宣言による)は本モデルの予測値1,577 万人より約200 万人多いとなっている。その5 年後の2015 年に本研究の予測値は約2,000 万人、つまり5 年間で三国相互訪問観光人口が300 万人増加する。さらに5 年後の2020 年に、また376 万人増加して、2,376 万人に達する。言い換えると、2020 年まで、その5 年ごとに300 万人から400 万人程度増加するという予測である。


 一. はじめに


  • 梁春香 량춘향. (日本)東洋大学国際地域学部国際観光学科 教授


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