earticle

영어

Exchange rate misalignment tends to disrupt the economic growth of developing countries, and persistent overvaluation may even lead to currency crises. Since the Asian financial crises in 1998, economists and policy makers have been concerned with whether or not the China currency, renminbi yuan (RMB) is undervalued. The supposed undervaluation of the RMB has been the subject of intensive academic research over the past few years. Based on the development in the equilibrium exchange rate theory this study develops real equilibrium exchange rates and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) models for RMB by using cointegration analysis. The empirical results show that the RMB real exchange rate has been under-valued during the most part the sample period, but the misalignment has a trend to become small, and during the after reform period from 2005q3 to 2006q4, a small degree of over-valuation replaced undervaluation. But this trend stopped in 2007, from the end of 2006, the RMB exchange rate began to under-valued again, moreover, in the current financial crisis period, the undervalued misalignment seems to become bigger.