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영어

The main purpose of this paper, hence, is to determine the reduced form impact of the economic variables on the foreign demand for soju. This is accomplished by modelling the export demand for soju as industrial production and exchange rate or exchange-rate- adjusted soju price. All series span the period January 1995 to November 2009. I first examine the univariate ime-series properties of the series by testing whether the series are stationary or not. The number of lags is determined on the performance of the Lagrange multiplier test for serial correlation. I cannot reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables at the 5 percent significance level. Based on this result, I test whether there is an equilibrium relationship between them using Engle-Granger cointegration procedure. The results show that the null hypothesis of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration cannot be rejected at the 5 percent level. This paper hitherto makes use of historical decompositions and variance decomposition of forecast error , both of which have now been widely used to examine how much movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how rapidly these fluctuations in one variable can be transmitted to another. The former shows that three variables move close to the
actual consumption path, indicating the model used here be appropriate in explaining and forecasting the soju exports. This study suggests that the exchange rate is likely to have a higher effect on the soju export than the industrial production and exchange-rate-adjusted soju price.