earticle

영어

This study aims to forecast the number of foreign visitors, mainly japanese and chinese tourists to Gyeong-ju city until 2013 year, using quantitative method. For this study, three quantitative forecasting models were compared and Winters model was selected as a final research model for forecasting the Gyeong-ju tourists demand. The results of this study show that the number of japanese tourists until 2015 year will decrease slowly, but the number of chinese tourists will increase. Neverthless japanese tourists will still dominate in Gyeong-ju until target year, i.e., 2015 aimed in this study. For this reason regional policymakers must concentrate their efforts on japanese tourists in the short terms. But from viewing the long terms it is necessary to concentrate their efforts on chinese tourists as well because it is predicted that chinese tourists will dominate in regional tourist market in the future.