수요예측모델을 활용한 경주지역 외래관광객 대안시장 탐색에 관한 연구


An Exploratory Study on Alternative Market for Gyeong-ju City using Forecasting Techniques

오정학, 임경환

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This study aims to forecast the number of foreign visitors, mainly japanese and chinese tourists to Gyeong-ju city until 2013 year, using quantitative method. For this study, three quantitative forecasting models were compared and Winters model was selected as a final research model for forecasting the Gyeong-ju tourists demand. The results of this study show that the number of japanese tourists until 2015 year will decrease slowly, but the number of chinese tourists will increase. Neverthless japanese tourists will still dominate in Gyeong-ju until target year, i.e., 2015 aimed in this study. For this reason regional policymakers must concentrate their efforts on japanese tourists in the short terms. But from viewing the long terms it is necessary to concentrate their efforts on chinese tourists as well because it is predicted that chinese tourists will dominate in regional tourist market in the future.


 I. 서론
 II. 수요예측이론과 기법
  1. 수요예측이론
  2. 수요예측기법
 III. 연구방법
  1. 예측모형의 선정
  2. 예측모형의 정확도 비교방법
  3. 분석방법
 IV. 분석결과
  1. 예측모델의 정확성 비교
  2. 경주방문 일본, 중국 관광객 수요예측 결과
  3. 방한 일본인 및 중국인 외래 관광객 수요예측 결과
 V. 결론 및 제언


  • 오정학 Oh, Jung-Hag. 서라벌대학 호텔경영과 조교수
  • 임경환 Lim, Kyung-Hwan. 서라벌대학 호텔경영과 교수


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