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영어

This paper purports to provide a counterfactual analysis of a non-event during the Second Republic of Korea, that is, the aborted Korea-Japan Normalization. The author argues that without General Park Chung Hee’s military coup on May 16, 1961, the rapprochement between the two former enemies would have been possible during the Second Republic of Korea. The ongoing process of negotiations for diplomatic normalization between South Korea and Japan would have been accelerated and have reached the ultimate goal but for the military’s unconstitutional toppling down of the first democratic regime in South Korea. Many experts argue that President Park’s strong leadership or the U.S. pressure is the main reason for the achievement of Korea-Japan Normalization. However, based on counterfactual analysis, this paper concludes that Korea-Japan Normalization would have been achieved much earlier than the year of 1965 when the two states actually reached an agreement only after spending four years of tough bargaining after the coup in South Korea.