earticle

영어

In this paper, we apply a logistic regression model to the data of snow damage on sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) occurred in Toyama prefecture (in Japan) in 2004 for estimating the risk probability. In order to specify the factors effecting snow damage, we apply a model selection procedure determining optimal subset of explanatory variables. In this process we consider the following 3 information criteria, 1) Akaike’'s information criterion, 2) Baysian information criterion, 3) Bias-corrected Akaike’'s information criterion. For the selected variables, we give a proper interpretation from the viewpoint of natural disaster.