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Putin’s invasion of Ukraine comes amidst Russo-Chinese cooperation in carving out spheres of influence in parts of Eurasia, with Pyongyang as their regional partner. Seoul’s hopes of cultivating China and Russia as interlocutors in inter-Korean relations are not tenable for the foreseeable future, posing three challenges for the ROK’s diplomatic and security interests. First, China and Russia are likely to sow discord in the US alliance network with the ROK and Japan; second, if the US is preoccupied in assisting Ukraine, Beijing may be tempted to invade Taiwan (Seoul remaining aloof in such a scenario would strain the alliance with the US); third, the ROK’s demographic crunch is occurring when North Korea’s partnership with China and Russia may provide Pyongyang with advanced armaments that would enable it to narrow the ROK’s technological edge.
