초록 열기/닫기 버튼
Viewing economic and trade cooperation, high-level personnel exchanges and public opinion as indicators, it can clearly be seen that since Kim Jong-un came to power, relations between China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have experienced three periods of obvious change: inheriting the friendly policy toward China that existed during Kim Jong-Il’s reign, declining into a cool period, and gradually recovering from that state. During these three periods, Kim Jong-un’s policies toward China and DPRK-China relations have experienced both continuity and change. The former is reflected in the following: despite ups and downs in the relationship between the two countries, it eventually returned to a cooperative state; the nuclear and missile issue and China-Republic of Korea (ROK) relations are still the two most important variables affecting North Korea’s China policy; and North Korea’s China policy continues to pursue a strategy of external balance. The distinct features of Kim Jong-un’s China policy are: a heightened stress on national autonomy; a policy formulated more toward China on national interests, while downplaying the influence of ideology and China-DPRK traditions; and seizing the initiative of the bilateral relationship. In the future, the development of China-DPRK relations will be subject to COVID-19 influences in the short term, while the North Korean nuclear issue and China-United States relations will affect the direction of bilateral relations in the medium and long term.
以经贸合作、高层人员交流和公开舆论为指征，可以明显看出自金正恩执 政以来，中朝关系经历了明显变化的三个时期：继承金正日时期的对华友好 政策、中朝关系陷入冷淡期和两国关系逐渐恢复。在这三个时期，金正恩时期 的对华政策和朝中关系既具有延续性也具有自身鲜明的特色。前者体现为两 国关系有波折但仍然会回归正轨；核导问题和中韩关系仍然是影响朝鲜对华 政策的两个最重要变量；朝鲜对华政策继续奉行外部制衡的策略。而金正恩 式的对华政策特点则体现为：强化国家自主性；以国家利益为准绳制定对外 政策，而淡化意识形态和中朝传统对朝鲜对华政策的影响；朝鲜掌握了改善 中朝关系的主动权。未来中朝关系的发展从短期来看受制于新冠疫情，而朝 核问题和中美关系则会从中长期影响两国关系走向。
