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This paper analyzes the effect of geopolitical risk on tourism demand using panel data of 14 countries with geopolitical risk index (GPR) from 1997 to 2019. We use the CS-ARDL (Cross-sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model) estimation method considering the cross-sectional dependence and slope coefficient heterogeneity of panel data to analyze the dynamic characteristics of long-term and short-term effects of tourism demand. The results of analysis are as follows. The effects of geopolitical risk index (GPR) and income on the number of inbound tourists are positive (+) and statistically significant, whereas the effects of exchange rate and pandemic on the number of inbound tourist are negative (-) and statistically significant. Most inbound tourists prefer to visit countries with social, economic and political security, which means that the mitigation of geopolitical risks can positively contribute to tourism demand. Therefore, it is required to establish policies to mitigating the negative impact that geopolitical risks can have on tourism demand.



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관광수요
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지정학적 위험
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횡단면 의존성
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이질성
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CS-ARDL
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Tourism Demand, Geopolitical Risk, Cross-sectional Dependence, Heterogeneity, Cross-sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model