초록 열기/닫기 버튼
본고의 목적은 지방자치제 시행 전 기간(1963-191년, 1기)과 지방자치 시행 후 기간(192-2018년, 2기)간을 구분하여 부산광역시의 통합재정의 세입과 세출과의 장기적 관계를 분석하고 비교하는 것이다. 이를 위해 숨은공적분’(hiden cointegration)을 고려한 비선형 자기회귀시차분포(Nardl)모형을 사용했다. 부산시 재정에서는지방자치제 시행 이전에는 세입과 세출의 관계는 증가요소들 간의 공적분관계로 세입이 세출로 인과하는 관계였다. 2기에도 1기와 마찬가지로 세입-세출의 인과성이 존재했지만, 장기균형관계는 감소요소들 간의 공적분 관계에 의한 것으로 바뀌었다. 1기에는 세입과 세출간에 장기비대칭 효과가 있었다. 그러나 2기에는 장기적인 비대칭 효과가없는 것으로 바뀌었다. 2기에는 세입 감소에 따른 세출 감소는 1기에 비해 크게 감소하고 세출 감소에 따른 세입 감소는 늘어난 형태로 변화했다. 본 분석을 통하여 부산시 재정은 지방자치제 시행 후에도 중앙정부의 규제를 중심으로 한 재정운용은 근본적 변화가 없으며, 세입과 세출에서 증가요소에 의한 변동은 큰 변화가 없었으나, 감소요소간의 변동은 재정운용에서 증가요소보다 더 큰 영향을 주었던 것임을 볼 수 있다. 이 분석 결과는 세입 및 세출 결정에서 구성요소들 간의 비대칭성에 주의를 기울일 필요가 있음을 보여준다
The purpose of this paper is to analyze and compare the long-term relationship between revenue and expenditure of the integrated finance of Busan Metropolitan City from 1963-1991 (before the implementation of the local autonomy system: 1 period) and 1992-2018 (the implementation of the local autonomy system:2 period). For this, the empirical analysis applied a nonlinear autoregressive lag distribution (Nardl) model. Prior to the implementation of the local autonomy system, revenues consisted of a relationship that regulated expenditure. In the first period, there was a long-term balanced relationship in the direction that revenues regulated expenditures in Busan's finances. It means that the Busan city finance was operated under the regulation of the central government. And such a relationship was formed by the cointegration between the positive factors of revenue and expenditure. In the 2 period, the causal direction of revenue and expenditure was the same as in the 1 period, but the long-run equilibrium relationship was changed to a cointegration relationship between negative(-) elements. In the 2 period, there was a long-run asymmetry effect between revenues and expenditures. However, in the 2 period, it has been changed to have no long-run asymmetric effect. the decrease in expenditures due to the decrease in revenues decreased significantly compared to in the first period, and the decrease in revenues due to the decrease in expenditures increased. These estimates show that, with respect to the existence of long-term equilibrium, negative (-) disturbances on finances were corrected at a faster rate than positive (+) disturbances in the second phase. The fact that the increase and decrease in the unit amount of revenue and expenditure are statistically equal to each other can be seen as having important implications in terms of the stability of fiscal management. Through this analysis, it can be seen that the positive(+) elements of the revenue and expenditure of Busan integrated fiscal revenue and expenditure was stable without significant change, but the negative(-) elements fluctuated and had a large impact. However, in the 2 period, such fluctuations decreased considerably. The results of this analysis show that attention needs to be paid to the asymmetry between the components in determining revenues and expenditures decisions.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
Busan consolidated finance, causality, hidden cointegration, Nardl, asymmetric effect
