초록 열기/닫기 버튼
Missile provocations from North Korea have repeatedly threatened South Korea’s national security. Does the ROK-U.S. military alliance deter missile provocations from North Korea? Even though the previous qualitative and case studies support the crucial role of the ROK-U.S. military alliance, statistical evidence on the influence of the ROK-U.S. military alliance on the missile provocations from North Korea is absent. This article provides empirical evidence for this relationship through Negative Binomial regressions with data about North Korea’s missile provocations from 1960 to 2016. To be specific, this article finds a strong military alliance with the U.S. decreases the number of missile provocations from North Korea. More interestingly, the deterrent influence of the military alliance on the missile provocations is augmented by the close economic relationship between South Korea and the U.S. Based on series of model specifications, this article shows that the empirical results are robust and consistent. The results imply that emphasizing the importance of the ROK-U.S. military alliance cannot be enough and the importance of the economic relationship with the U.S. should also not be marginalized.
