현금보유 증가에 대한 국내외 관심이 최근 고조되고 있다. 본 연구는 경제에서 차지하는 비중이 압도적인 유가증권시장 상장기업을 대상으로 현금보유와 그 결정요인의 변화에 대해 추세분석, 현금보유-결정요인 민감 도분석, 부분조정모형 등을 통해 분석하였다. 1982년부터 2018년까지 37년간의 장기간을 표본기간으로 설정하 였는데, 1997년의 외환위기와 2008년의 글로벌 신용위기가 포함되어 위기에 따른 현금관리의 구조적 변화를 살펴보기에 유리하다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같이 정리될 수 있다. 첫째, 표본기간 동안 상장기업의 현금보유는 전반적으로 증가하였다. 평균 현금보유 추세와 총합 현금보유 추세는 차이를 보이는데 전자는 외환위기 이전에 후자는 외환위기 이후에 증가추세가 뚜렷하였다. 현금보유에 있어 기업 간 편차는 기업규모에 관계없이 시간이 경과함 에 따라 증가하고 있었다. 둘째, 결정요인 기본모형에는 기업규모, 현금흐름, 유형성, 부채비율, 활동성 등 기업 특성변수가 포함되었는데, 분석결과 모든 변수가 예상과 일치하는 영향을 미치고 있었다. 통제변수를 추가한 확장모형에서도 기본 변수들의 부호와 유의성에는 변함이 없었다. 또한 거시경제변수를 기본모형에 추가했는 데 설명력에 큰 변화가 없어 기업특성변수가 현금보유의 주된 결정요인임을 알 수 있었다. 셋째, 외환위기 및 신용위기에 따른 결정요인의 민감도 변화를 살펴본 결과 일부 결정요인에 유의한 변화가 있었다. 유형성과 활동성이 이에 해당되는데 외환위기 이후에 음(-)의 영향이 더 커졌지만, 신용위기 이후에는 음(-)의 영향이 더 작아져 대비가 되었다. 넷째, 현금은 음(-)의 부채로 간주된다는 주장을 뒷받침하는 여러 증거가 발견되었다. 표본기간 동안에 특히 외환위기 이후에 부채비율과 현금보유는 반비례 관계를 보이는 한편 부채비율의 변동성 이 현금보유의 변동성에 비해 훨씬 작았다. 이는 외환위기 이후에 기업이 저부채비율 정책을 강력히 추진해 하향 안정세를 유지한 반면 현금보유는 상황에 대처하기 위해 보다 적극적으로 변경하였다는 것을 의미한다. 다섯째, 전기의 현금증가는 당기의 현금감소로 이어지고 있는 동시에 유의한 조정속도를 보이고 있어 기업이 목표현금수준을 염두에 두고 현금관리를 하고 있음을 알 수 있었다.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in increasing cash holdings. Firms want to hold enough cash to meet precautionary and transactional motives but they have to consider opportunity costs and agency costs incurred by holding cash. The trade-off theory emphasizes that firms determine the optimal level by considering the pros and cons of cash holdings. In contrast, the pecking order theory emphasizes that firms have financial flexibility by retaining surplus cash. In the United States, cash holding and line of credits have increased significantly since 1980s. Various causes for the rapid expansion of these cashable assets have been identified, which include increasing uncertainty, changes in composition of firms, and repatriation taxes. In Korea, risk management has been strengthened after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008. The uncertainty of the economy has been increasing and at the same time the importance of intangible assets is growing in the current stage of the Korean economy. As a result, cash holdings play a major role in both investment and financing decision making. When firms are reluctant to invest to accumulate cash for conservative risk management, unemployment and economic slowdown are expected. In this context, the reflux of corporate income act has been implemented since 2015 with the intention of promoting investment while creating a virtuous cycle of income distribution by leading profits to dividend payments and wage increases. This study analyzes changes in cash holdings and their determinants for listed companies in the KOSPI stock market, which have an overwhelming share of the Korean economy. The long-term period of 37 years from 1982 to 2018 is set as a sample period, including the 1997 foreign exchange crisis and the 2008 global credit crisis, which is advantageous to examining the structural changes in cash management due to the crises. Trend analysis is adopted to find out whether the substantial increase in cash holdings has occurred in Korea and whether there have been substantial changes in cash-determinants sensitivity before and after the crises. Through the cash determinants model, this study analyzes how corporate characteristics and macroeconomic variables affect cash holdings. In addition, this study measures the adjustment speed employing the partial adjustment model in order to examine whether firms set a target cash level. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, the cash holdings of Korean firms increased during the sample period. Especially, the increase in cash holdings by SMEs before the exchange crisis and the increase in cash holdings by large firms after the crisis are noticeable. In addition, the average cash holdings are different from the aggregate cash holdings, with the former showing an increasing trend before the exchange crisis and the latter after the exchange crisis. Volatility of cash holdings between firms have been increasing over time regardless of firm size. Second, the basis model of determinants includes firm size, cash flow, tangibility, leverage, and activity, all of which are highly relevant to precautionary and transactional motives. All of the variables included have an effect consistent with prior expectations. Even in the extended model with the added control variables, the sign and significance of the variables in the basis model remain the same. When macroeconomic variables are added to the basis model, there is no significant change in explanatory power. This indicates that the firm characteristics are the main determinants of cash holdings. Third, as a result of examining changes in the sensitivity of the determinants due to the foreign exchange crisis and the credit crisis, there are significant changes in some of the determinants. This includes tangibility and activity. After the financial crisis, the negative effects of both variables became larger, but after the credit crisis, the negative effects became smaller. Fourth, evidence has been found to support the claim that cash is considered a negative debt. During the sample period, debt ratio and cash holdings are inversely related, especially after the foreign exchange crisis. The volatility of debt ratios is much smaller than that of cash holdings. This means that after the foreign exchange crisis, firms have pushed the low leverage policy to maintain a stable downward trend, while they have changed cash holdings more actively. Fifth, it is found that the increase in cash in the previous year leads to a decrease in cash for the current period. The significant adjustment speed and mean reversion when firms deviate from the target level indicate that firms try to maintain the target cash level.

Changes in Cash Management, Determinants of Cash Holdings, Cash Sensitivity, Target Cash Level, Adjustment Speed