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近年来, 生鲜农产品越来越成为消费者餐桌上不可或缺的食物之一, 但由 于生鲜农产品本身的自然属性导致生鲜农产品供应链比一般供应链风险更 高, 因此, 对生鲜农产品供应链风险识别与评价显得尤为重要。本文首先对 生鲜农产品供应链风险的国内外相关文献进行了梳理, 在此基础上构建了生 鲜农产品供应链风险评价体系, 共涉及4个一级指标(需求风险、供应风险、 物流风险、信息风险)和12个二级指标, 其次通过问卷调硏获取数据运用层 次分析法确定指标权重, 幷对三条不同的生鲜农产品供应链进行风险评价的 案例分析, 硏究结果显示: (1)生鲜农产品供应链风险体系中, 需求风险的权 重最大(0.5174), 其次是供应风险(0.2490), 再次物流风险(0.1279), 最后是信 息风险(0.1057)；(2)12个二级风险指标体系中, 处于前六位的分别是价格波 动(0.2753)、产品质量安全(0.1942)、消费者偏好(0.1894)、交货延迟(0.062 7)、同产品竞争(0.0527)、信息失眞(0.0518)；(3)案例分析中博莱农业为核心 的生鲜农产品供应链抗风险能力最强, 其次是溢香农和仙客来。最后本文从 供需方面、物流技术与模式、信息化等四个方面提出了具有针对性的对策 建议和意见。本文通过定性与定量相结合的方法构建生鲜农产品供应链风 险评价体系幷进行实証分析, 为科学的制定风险规避对策提供了理论依据, 能有效的保障生鲜农产品供应链持续稳定的运作。
In recent years, fresh agricultural products have increasingly become one of the indispensable foods on the table of consumers. However, due to the natural attributes of fresh agricultural products, fresh agricultural supply chain has higher risks than general supply chain. Therefore, it is particularly important to identify and evaluate the risks of fresh agricultural supply chain. This paper firstly combs the relevant domestic and foreign literatures on the risk of fresh agricultural product supply chain. On this basis, on the basis of building the fresh agricultural products supply chain risk evaluation system, involved 4 first-level indicators (demand risk, supply risk, logistics risk, information risk) and 12 secondary indicators, through the questionnaire survey to get the data by using AHP to determine the index weight, and the three different cases of fresh agricultural products supply chain risk assessment analysis, the results showed that: (1) in the risk system of fresh agricultural product supply chain, the weight of demand risk is the largest (0.5174), followed by supply risk (0.2490), logistics risk (0.1279), and information risk (0.1057). (2) among the 12 secondary risk indicator systems, the top six are price fluctuation (0.2753), product quality safety (0.1942), consumer preference (0.1894), delivery delay (0.0627), competition for the same product(0.0527) and information distortion (0.0518). (3) in the case study, the fresh agricultural products supply chain with BoLai agriculture as the core has the strongest risk resistance ability, followed by YiXiangnong and XianKelai. Finally, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and Suggestions from the aspects of supply and demand, logistics technology and mode, informatization and so on. In this paper, the risk assessment system of fresh agricultural supply chain is constructed by combining qualitative and quantitative methods and conducts empirical analysis, which provides theoretical basis for scientific risk avoidance countermeasures and effectively guarantees the continuous and stable operation of fresh agricultural supply chain.
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AHP, Fresh agricultural products, Supply chain, Risk assessment
