초록 열기/닫기 버튼
In 2018, the Korean Peninsula has seen growing expectations of an era of peace due to the Inter–Korean Summit and the U.S.–DPRK Summit. Accordingly, the need for an accurate assessment of the size of the North Korean regular forces continues to grow in preparation for full-scale disarmament to include manpower reduction. However, researchers and institutions are coming up with different estimates in this respect. In 2016, the ROK Ministry of National Defense estimated the North Korean military to be 1.28 million strong. Also, Eberstadt and Banister believed the North Korean military end strength in the 1980s was 1.25 million, whereas Lee Suk in 2008 assessed the number to be in the range of 1.04 to 1.16 million. To estimate the end strength of the North Korean regular forces, this research used the ROK military’s personnel data to build a model for estimating the size of the ROK military. The model multiplied the number of annual draftees by 21 months (1.7 years), after which those discharged early were excluded. The consequent estimate proved to be highly accurate, with its margin of error at ±2 percent. Based upon this basic model, this research multiplied the number of annual draftees in North Korea by the number of years in service (10 years), after which those promoted to ofcers and those discharged early were excluded. The resulting number was the estimated end strength of the North Korean military. This research assesses the size of the North Korean regular forces to be 1.05 million (or in the range of 0.99–1.11 million) servicemen in 2018. Therefore, previous assessments (Eberstadt and Banister, Lee Suk, ROK Ministry of National Defense) seem to have produced overestimates. In the future, the end strength of the North Korean regular forces is likely to decline to 0.87 million until 2031 due to the decreasing size of the North Korean population. The North Korean government is also likely to make efforts to maintain its military end strength by increasing draft rates or the number of women serving in the military. However, if North Korea pushes too long and too hard in its effort to maintain its military end strength, it may face significant socio-economic problems. Therefore, the two Koreas will both benet by continuing the momentum for peace and reconciliation, as reducing the military end strength on both sides of the border will mitigate problems from shrinking draftee pools and reduce socio-economic pressures.
