초록 열기/닫기 버튼
정보통신기술이 기존 산업과 융합됨에 따라 고용분야에서 많은 변화가 이루어지고 있는 추세이다. 여기에우리나라 경제에서 중요한 비중을 점하고 있는 ICT산업의 생산, 부가가치, 고용이 감소하는 경향을 보이고있다. 본고는 ICT산업을 SID(SI 개발 및 설계), SWD(SW 개발 및 설계), CNT(ICT 콘텐츠), SYS(시스템 운영관리), COM(통신/방송서비스), HWD(HW 개발 및 설계), HWM(HW 유지관리), ITM(IT기술 영업 및 교육)과같이 8개 부문으로 구분하여 종사자의 변동을 요인별로 분해한다. 분석기법으로 BCG 매트릭스와 변이할당모형이 이용된다. BCG분석을 통해 COM, HWM, ITM, SID, CNT, SYS는 dog영역에, HWD는 child 영역에 위치하며, SWD만 star 위상을 갖는다는 것을 보인다. 변이할당분석을 실시하여 ICT산업의 구조보다 8개 부문 자체의구조적 요인이 종사자 증가의 장애요인이라는 점과 종사자의 증가를 위해서는 전반적인 ICT산업과 별도로8개 부문 각각의 경쟁력 향상이 이루어져야 한다는 것을 밝힌다. 이러한 분석을 통해 star 영역에 위치한SWD를 포함한 대부분의 부문에서 최소한 단기적으로 고용감소가 지속될 것임을 보인다.
The combination of ICT technology in the manufacturing sector, which has been the basis of the existing industry, is leading to changes in the connected industrial structure. Especially, the 4th industrial revolution through ICT is expected to have a destructive effect on the existing industrial structure. The biggest change is the decrease in the number of jobs or the emergence of new jobs. This paper is to analyse the behavioral pattern of ICT industry’s sectoral growth and decompose its changes using the BCG matrixes and the shift-share analysis over the period 2013 to 2016. A BCG matrix, representing respectively the horizontal (relative market share) and vertical (market growth rate), the former using a log natural transformation, shows that COM, HWM, ITM, and SID are on dog area, CNT, SYS and HWD locate at child area, and SWD is in star area. However, the two axes with grid lines positioned at Y = 0, and X = 1 to identify market leaders, CNT, SYS and HWD degrade from a child to a dog. We adopts the shift-share decomposition approach to investigate the nature of sectoral workers change in ICT industry. This approach, enabling us to look in depth at the geography of workers change, presents a number of benefits. First, it is a deterministic approach so that we can avoid imposing a given causality direction in the relationship between workers change and industrial characteristics. Second, we can look at sectoral components separately as well as being able to check national effects. In this way, we can reduce the risk of misleading results. The result of shift-share analysis indicates that much of the worker change is attributed to the sectoral industry effect. Two sectors such as SID and HWM are likely to succeed in escaping from a dog market and rising to a child market, while the other sectors are likely to degrade from their positions.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
ICT Industry, Shift Share Analysis, BCG matrix
