북한이 2002년 7.1 경제관리개선조치 이후 경제의 전부문에 걸쳐 추진해 온 경제개혁과정들을 보면, 이른바 선군시대경제건설노선이라는 방향성을 전제한 가운데 계획경제의 분권화‧화폐화와 개방화→시장화→분권화‧화폐화의 확대 개혁→개방화 확대→개혁의 부작용 조절 등 단계로 전략적‧의도적으로 전개해오고 있음을 볼 수 있다. 일부에서 언급하는 바 대로 현실추수적으로 경제개혁을 하고 있는 것이 아니라, 나름대로 국가전략적 차원에서 ‘북한식’ 경제개혁개방모델을 구축하는 방향으로 전개해오고 있음을 볼 수 있다. 이는 7.1조치 이후 북한의 문헌들에서 이를 이론화하고자 하는 시도들과 외관상 드러나고 있지 않지만 문헌 행간상에서 읽혀지는 정책논쟁들의 맥락 등을 통해 확인할 수 있었다. 그러면 북한이 추구하는 경제개혁개방전략이란 어떤 것인가? 한 마디로 ‘선군경제개혁개방’이라는 개념으로 정립할 수 있는 것이라 할 수 있다. 북한은 체제유지를 위한 선군정치방식의 유지, 기존 북한 산업구조의 재건 및 정상화, 단번 도약론에 입각한 경제회복전략 등을 고려해 볼 때 군수산업 그리고 이와 산업연관되어 있는 중화학공업부문‧기간산업들을 계획적 조절로 정상화, 발전시켜 나가고 인민경제부문은 사회주의과도적 단계론에 따라 시장적 조절을 활용하고자 하는 전략을 세웠다. 이러한 전략은 시장경제공간을 통해 발생된 경제적 잉여를 계획경제부문의 정상화 및 발전에 활용하고, 주요 산업부문의 계획경제유지에 의해 시장경제를 통제하려는 전략으로서 계획과 시장간의 관계를 병렬적 관계(two-track system)로 구축하려는 전략이라고 할 수 있다. 1980년대 중국이 계획과 시장간의 관계를 상보적 관계(dual system)로 구축하려는 전략과 대비된다고 할 수 있다. 북한의 이러한 전략은 2단계 북핵불능화과정 이후 모든 여건이 순조롭게 된다면 가시화되어 나타날 것으로 전망된다. 그것은 지배 엘리트집단의 개혁과 반개혁의 필요성 모두를 충족시킬 수 있는 방향이기 때문이다. 물론 북한이 추구하는 선군경제개혁개방전략이, 비교사회주의적 관점에서 보았을 때 성공의 불확실성이 아주 높음을 유의해둘 필요는 있다.

The economic reform steps which North Korea has pursued over the economy after the reform-oriented economic measures on July 1st in 2002 have a clear direction toward the so-called economic delopment policy for the Military-first politics. Based on the concept of the Military-first politics, the reform processes has strategically and intentionally followed the routines of; decentralizing planned economy, establishing monetary economy, pursuing open-door policy (2002)→ marketnization(2003) → expanded reform by decentralization and establishment of monetary economy(2004) → enlarging the open-door policy(2005) → reform speed contro for the minimization of side effects of the reform. Therefore, North Korea is reforming the socialist economy not just by following up the real economy as several literatures has assessed but by building a ‘North Korean Style’ model with a clear national strategy. This assessment can be verified and supported by North Korean literatures and records which has attempted to theorize the reform policies after the July 1st, 2002 measures as well as by the implicit context of policy arguments in North Korea. What are the economic reform strategy and open-door policy by the North Korean regime? In short, they are the military-first leading economic reform and open-door policy. The North Korean regime has deliberated the maintenance of the Military-first politics, reconstruction and normalization of the existing North Korean industry, strategies for economic recovery based on once for all economic take off in order to continue the current regime. With this consideration, North Korea has established a set of strategies; normalizing and developing the military industry, the heavy-chemical industry, and the key industries with plan as well as making full use of self-regulation of market for the people’s economy sector based on the theory of transitional stage to socialism. This strategy aims to make use of economic surplus from the market economy in order to normalize the planned economy and to regulate the market economy through maintaining the planned economy for the key industries. Therefore, the strategy is to construct the relationship between the market and the governmental plan as into the ‘two-track system.’ This North Korean strategy can be compared with the Chinese strategy in 1980s which aimed to set the relationship between the market and the governmental plan as the ‘dual system.’ This study expects the North Korean strategy will be attainable if all of the given conditions are favorable after North Korea makes its second step toward denuclearization. It is because the necessities for the reform and the anti-reform of the ruling class in North Korea are both satisfied through this strategy. However, the uncertainty still remains very high when the North Korean reform strategy is analyzed from the view point of comparison of socialism.

The economic reform steps which North Korea has pursued over the economy after the reform-oriented economic measures on July 1st in 2002 have a clear direction toward the so-called economic delopment policy for the Military-first politics. Based on the concept of the Military-first politics, the reform processes has strategically and intentionally followed the routines of; decentralizing planned economy, establishing monetary economy, pursuing open-door policy (2002)→ marketnization(2003) → expanded reform by decentralization and establishment of monetary economy(2004) → enlarging the open-door policy(2005) → reform speed contro for the minimization of side effects of the reform. Therefore, North Korea is reforming the socialist economy not just by following up the real economy as several literatures has assessed but by building a ‘North Korean Style’ model with a clear national strategy. This assessment can be verified and supported by North Korean literatures and records which has attempted to theorize the reform policies after the July 1st, 2002 measures as well as by the implicit context of policy arguments in North Korea. What are the economic reform strategy and open-door policy by the North Korean regime? In short, they are the military-first leading economic reform and open-door policy. The North Korean regime has deliberated the maintenance of the Military-first politics, reconstruction and normalization of the existing North Korean industry, strategies for economic recovery based on once for all economic take off in order to continue the current regime. With this consideration, North Korea has established a set of strategies; normalizing and developing the military industry, the heavy-chemical industry, and the key industries with plan as well as making full use of self-regulation of market for the people’s economy sector based on the theory of transitional stage to socialism. This strategy aims to make use of economic surplus from the market economy in order to normalize the planned economy and to regulate the market economy through maintaining the planned economy for the key industries. Therefore, the strategy is to construct the relationship between the market and the governmental plan as into the ‘two-track system.’ This North Korean strategy can be compared with the Chinese strategy in 1980s which aimed to set the relationship between the market and the governmental plan as the ‘dual system.’ This study expects the North Korean strategy will be attainable if all of the given conditions are favorable after North Korea makes its second step toward denuclearization. It is because the necessities for the reform and the anti-reform of the ruling class in North Korea are both satisfied through this strategy. However, the uncertainty still remains very high when the North Korean reform strategy is analyzed from the view point of comparison of socialism.

the reform-oriented economic measures on July 1st 2002, the military- first leading economic reform and open-door policy, two-track economic system, dual economic system