초록 열기/닫기 버튼
This study aims at conducting a comparative study on the potential economic effects of trade liberalization of the RCEP consisting of 10 member states of the ASEAN, Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea and New Zealand and the TPP comprised of Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam using a global, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to see which one, RCEP or TPP, would be more beneficial to Korea economically. Three different policy scenarios are carried out based on baseline scenarios: trade liberalization of the RCEP (scenario 1); trade liberalization of the TPP (scenario 2); and trade liberalization of the TPP + Korea’s FTAs with 7 members of the TPP (scenario 3). The impacts of three scenarios are described in terms of real GDP, equivalent variation as a measure of welfare, export and import volumes, trade balance, and terms of trade. Major findings of this study are that the RCEP will be more beneficial to Korea in terms of real GDP, welfare and trade balance and that Korea has an economic incentive to play a leading role in promoting the RCEP.