초록 열기/닫기 버튼
In this paper, I examine whether democratic institutions help developing countries improve their perceived creditworthiness in sovereign bond markets. Democratic political institutions may promote policy credibility by providing stability to the political system, better protection of property rights, and greater transparency in policymaking process. Specifically, I examine whether the effects of democracy differ in countries governed by leftist governments and non-leftist governments. Governments dominated by leftist parties have been said to present greater political risk to investors because of their stronger ideological incentives to default and their greater emphasis on redistribution and full employment rather than on monetary discipline. I explore if democratic regimes are more effective in convincing investors in leftist governments’bond markets. By conducting selection-corrected, timeseries- cross-sectional analyses of country credit ratings data for more than 100 countries around the world from 1980 to 2004, I find that democracy helps developing countries improve their credit ratings and that democracy has a greater positive impact among leftist governments.
In this paper, I examine whether democratic institutions help developing countries improve their perceived creditworthiness in sovereign bond markets. Democratic political institutions may promote policy credibility by providing stability to the political system, better protection of property rights, and greater transparency in policymaking process. Specifically, I examine whether the effects of democracy differ in countries governed by leftist governments and non-leftist governments. Governments dominated by leftist parties have been said to present greater political risk to investors because of their stronger ideological incentives to default and their greater emphasis on redistribution and full employment rather than on monetary discipline. I explore if democratic regimes are more effective in convincing investors in leftist governments’bond markets. By conducting selection-corrected, timeseries- cross-sectional analyses of country credit ratings data for more than 100 countries around the world from 1980 to 2004, I find that democracy helps developing countries improve their credit ratings and that democracy has a greater positive impact among leftist governments.
이 논문은 민주주의 정치제도가 개발도상국가의 국가신용도에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 있다. 일반적으로 민주적 정치제도는 비민주적 정치제도보다 정치체제를 안정시키고 사적 재산권을 보호하며 정책결정과정이 투명하다는 특징을 가지며, 이러한 점들은 국가 정책에 대한 투자자 들의 신용도를 높일수 있다. 특히 개도국의 좌파정부들은 재분배와 완전고용을 강조하는 외에 도 국채의무를 소홀히 하는 경향이 있어 투자자들은 이들 국가에 투자하는 것에 더 큰 위험부 담을 가질수 있는데, 본 논문은 과연 앞서 나열한 바와 같은 민주주의의 긍정적인 영향이 좌파 정권에 더 크게 작용하는지도 알아보고자 한다. 1980년에서 2004년까지 100여개 이상의 개발 도상국가들의 자료를 바탕으로 통계분석을 한 결과 민주주의는 개발도상국들의 국가신용도를 높이는데 도움을 주며 그 효과는 좌파정부에서 더 크다는 결론에 도달했다. 이 결과를 얻는데 있어 방법론적으로 민주주의와 경제변수간에 발생할수 있는 내생성 (endogenentiy) 문제 및 표본선택 편의 (selection bias)의 문제를 해결하고자 하였다.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
민주주의, 신용등급, 국채, 개발도상국, 좌익정당
