이명박 정부의 출범이후 남북관계는 북한의 반발로 거의 단 절된 상태를 유지하고 있다. 또한 북한은 2009년도 1월 오바마 행정부가 들어서자 4월5일 장거리 로켓 발사와 5월25일 2차 핵실험을 강행함으로써 미국을 실험하고 있다. 북한의 위기조성은 한국전쟁 이후 지금까지 계속되어 왔다. 냉전시대에 북한의 위기조성의 목적은 ‘한반도 공산화’라는 궁극적 목표에 치중한 반 면, 탈냉전 이후에는 ‘정권안보 및 체제유지’와 경제난 극복 등 당면목표 에 비중을 두고, 핵과 미사일을 위기조성의 수단으로 하여 생존전략을 모 색하고 있으며, 전통적인 충격요법으로 벼랑끝 전술과 살라미 전술 등을 계속 사용할 것이다. 김정일 3기체제하에서 북한의 위기조성전략의 성격은 오바마 행정부와 새로운 협상과정이며, 종국적으로는 잠재적 핵보유국으로서 지위를 모색 하고 있다는 점이다. 이를 위해서 핵과 미사일 주 수단으로 활용하겠지만, 과거의 경험에 비추어 볼 때 국지􀁸제한적 군사적 도발도 배제할 수 없을 것이다. 이러한 북한의 전략에 대해 바람직한 방향은 사안별로 구분하여 ‘강온전략’을 선택하는 것이 것이다. 이에 대한 한국의 대응은 􀁣북한의 군사적 도발에 대한 대비태세를 갖 추는 것과 􀁤북한을 핵보유국으로 인정되는 사태 방지, 􀁥대북정책 개선 을 통한 남북교류협력 활성화, 􀁦한미공조체제 유지, 􀁧6자회담 재개를 위 한 주변국과의 외교적 노력 강화 등에 중점을 두어야 한다. 북한은 유엔안보리의 대북결의 1874호에 따라 적용되는 국제사회의 제재에 맞서 위기 조성의 수위를 더욱 높여갈 것으로 보인다. 따라서 향후 한반도의 안보정 세의 향방은 오바마 행정부의 대북정책에 달려 있다고 해도 과언이 아니 다. 한미양국은 강온전략을 통해 북한에 대한 제재와 유인책을 병행하면 서 위기국면을 대화국면으로 전환할 수 있도록 노력해야 할 것이다. 단지 어떠한 경우라도 북한을 핵보유국으로 인정되는 사태를 방지하고, 북한의 무력도발에 대한 철저히 대비하는 조치는 한국안보의 사활이다.

Since the inauguration of Lee Myeong-Bak's government, relations between South Korea and North Korea has almost ruptured as North Korea has resisted against the more practical North Korea policies. North Korea launched a long-distance rocket when the government led by Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 to test the United States. Its crisis making has continued since the Korea War. The purpose of such crisis making is aimed at 'communization of the Korean peninsular' an ultimate goal in the Cold War whereas it aims at 'maintenance of its system' and ' overcoming economic crisis' in the Post Cold War period. North Korea is developing strategies for survival using weapons of mass destruction and will continue to use conventional shock treatments such as brinkmanship and salami tactics. North Korea's crisis making strategy is characterized by negotiations for maintenance of its system and overcoming economic crisis under the System Period 3 of Kim, Jeong-Il and it is promoting its post as having potential nuclear weapons while negotiating on nuclear weapons. For the purpose, it uses nuclear weapons and missiles as the main means, but in term of past experiences, it will keep face with local and limited military stimulation. So our desirable direction against North Korea's strategies is to develop the 'strong and mild strategy' according to respective situations. Our directions should focus on: Being prepared against North Korea's military escalation; Preventing recognition of North Korea as having nuclear weapons; Separation of the issues of nuclear weapons and the relations between South and North Korea, and reinforced effort to reopen exchanges between North Korea and South Korea Maintenance of the mutual assistance system between Korea and the U.S.A. and Reinforcement of diplomatic effort with surrounding countries for reopening of the six-party talks. North Korea appears to escalate the level of crisis making against the punishment imposed by international society in accordance with the joint statement of the Security Council. Therefore, it is no exaggeration that the future direction of security in the Korean peninsula depends on the North Korea policy led by the Obama government. Korean and the U.S.A. should try to change this crisis into peace by providing both punishment and incentives for North Korea through the 'strong and mild strategy'. However, in any case, the situation that North Korea has nuclear weapons has to be prevented and we should be completely prepared against North Korea's armed provocation for our security.

Since the inauguration of Lee Myeong-Bak's government, relations between South Korea and North Korea has almost ruptured as North Korea has resisted against the more practical North Korea policies. North Korea launched a long-distance rocket when the government led by Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 to test the United States. Its crisis making has continued since the Korea War. The purpose of such crisis making is aimed at 'communization of the Korean peninsular' an ultimate goal in the Cold War whereas it aims at 'maintenance of its system' and ' overcoming economic crisis' in the Post Cold War period. North Korea is developing strategies for survival using weapons of mass destruction and will continue to use conventional shock treatments such as brinkmanship and salami tactics. North Korea's crisis making strategy is characterized by negotiations for maintenance of its system and overcoming economic crisis under the System Period 3 of Kim, Jeong-Il and it is promoting its post as having potential nuclear weapons while negotiating on nuclear weapons. For the purpose, it uses nuclear weapons and missiles as the main means, but in term of past experiences, it will keep face with local and limited military stimulation. So our desirable direction against North Korea's strategies is to develop the 'strong and mild strategy' according to respective situations. Our directions should focus on: Being prepared against North Korea's military escalation; Preventing recognition of North Korea as having nuclear weapons; Separation of the issues of nuclear weapons and the relations between South and North Korea, and reinforced effort to reopen exchanges between North Korea and South Korea Maintenance of the mutual assistance system between Korea and the U.S.A. and Reinforcement of diplomatic effort with surrounding countries for reopening of the six-party talks. North Korea appears to escalate the level of crisis making against the punishment imposed by international society in accordance with the joint statement of the Security Council. Therefore, it is no exaggeration that the future direction of security in the Korean peninsula depends on the North Korea policy led by the Obama government. Korean and the U.S.A. should try to change this crisis into peace by providing both punishment and incentives for North Korea through the 'strong and mild strategy'. However, in any case, the situation that North Korea has nuclear weapons has to be prevented and we should be completely prepared against North Korea's armed provocation for our security.

crisis making, brinkmanship, salami tactics, a state with nuclear weapons, North Korea policy.