본 논문은 국가간 힘의 변화가 국제체제 변화를 초래한다는 세력전이 이론의 가정에 입각하여 미⋅중간 세력전이 가능성을 살펴 본 후 이를 바탕으로 향후 동북아지역 안보협력질서를 전망해 보았다. 최근 중국의 급성장에 따라 미⋅중간 제반 갈등이 표출되고 있는데, 이를 세력전이의 전조나 양상으로는 볼 수 없다. 세력전이는 도전국이 패권국의 경제력과 군사력을 능가해야만 가능하다. 미⋅중간 국력을 비교해 볼 때 중국은 경제력과 군사력 면에서 미국을 넘어서지 못하고 있다. 중국에 의한 세력전이 가능성은 ‘중국위협론’에 바탕을 둔 것으로 볼 수 있다. 이러한 상황에서 동북아 안보협력질서는 상당기간 동안 미국 주도로 지속될 것이다. 다만, 중국의 급성장은 동북아지역에서 중국 중심의 다자안보협력 질서를 태동 시킬 가능성이 크다. 이러한 경우에도 미⋅중간 충돌 가능성은 높지 않아 보인다. 이는 중국이 미국 주도의 지역안보 협력질서를 적극적으로 변화시키지 않으려 한다는 것과 동시에 패권국인 미국에 대해 협력적 자세를 보일 가능성이 높기 때문이다.

Based on the hypothesis of the power transition theory that the power changes among countries lead to those of international systems, this study looks into the possibility of power transition between the United States and China and then forecasts the future security cooperation system in the Northeast Asian region on the basis of such possibility As China has drastically grown in recent years, conflicts are emerging between the United States and China, which is not to been seen as a sign or an aspect of power transition. The transition of power cannot be realized, unless a challenging country exceeds the economic and military strengths of a hegemonic country. In terms of such strengths, China has not yet surpassed the United States. It seems that the possibility of power transition by China is based on "the China Threat". In the current circumstances, the security cooperation system in Northeast Asia, however, will remain unchanged under the leadership of the United States during a considerable period. Nonetheless, it is highly likely that the drastic development of China will give birth to the multilateral security cooperation system led by China in the Northeast Asian region. However, the possibility does not appear to be high that the United States and China will clash with each other. This is because China does not only intend to actively change the regional security cooperation system led by the United States, but has a strong possibility of showing a cooperative attitude toward the United States as a supreme power.

Based on the hypothesis of the power transition theory that the power changes among countries lead to those of international systems, this study looks into the possibility of power transition between the United States and China and then forecasts the future security cooperation system in the Northeast Asian region on the basis of such possibility As China has drastically grown in recent years, conflicts are emerging between the United States and China, which is not to been seen as a sign or an aspect of power transition. The transition of power cannot be realized, unless a challenging country exceeds the economic and military strengths of a hegemonic country. In terms of such strengths, China has not yet surpassed the United States. It seems that the possibility of power transition by China is based on "the China Threat". In the current circumstances, the security cooperation system in Northeast Asia, however, will remain unchanged under the leadership of the United States during a considerable period. Nonetheless, it is highly likely that the drastic development of China will give birth to the multilateral security cooperation system led by China in the Northeast Asian region. However, the possibility does not appear to be high that the United States and China will clash with each other. This is because China does not only intend to actively change the regional security cooperation system led by the United States, but has a strong possibility of showing a cooperative attitude toward the United States as a supreme power.

Power transition, International systems, Northeast Asia, Security cooperation system, United States; China.