우리나라의 교역조건은 1980년대와 1990년대 전반적으로 개선되는 모습을 보였지만, 2000년대 들어 세계 IT경기가 크게 위축되면서 다시 악화되었다. 이처럼 교역조건이 악화되면서 무역수지의 흑자와 실질 국민소득이 감소하고, 더불어 소비와 투자도 부진하게 되면서 고용이 정체되는 등 교역조건의 악화는 경제 전반에 부정적인 영향을 주었다. 본 논문에서는 우리나라 교역조건의 변동 추이를 분석함은 물론 모형을 통하여 교역조건을 결정하는 주요 요인을 분석하였으며, 또한 교역조건의 개선을 위한 대안을 제시하였다. 2000년 이후에 나타난 교역조건의 추세를 보면, 반도체와 무선통신기기 등 IT품목의 가격 급락으로 수출단가가 크게 하락한 반면에, 유가 및 국제원자재 가격의 상승으로 수입단가가 크게 오르면서 교역조건이 더욱 악화되고 있다. 회귀분석의 결과, 환율 및 유가가 다른 변수에 비해 교역조건의 악화에 더 큰 영향을 준 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 교역조건을 개선하기 위해서는 부가가치가 높은 새로운 산업의 육성을 통해 IT품목 위주의 수출구조를 다변화할 필요가 있다. 이와 함께 정부개입에 의한 인위적인 환율제도보다는 좀 더 신축적인 환율의 변화를 통해 교역조건의 충격을 흡수하는 것이 바람직하다. 유가 및 국제원자재 가격의 상승에 따른 교역조건의 악화를 줄이기 위해서는 에너지 이용의 효율성 제고와 대체에너지 개발 및 자원보유국가와의 외교를 더욱 강화하여 해외자원의 개발에 더 많은 노력을 경주해야 한다.

The paper addresses the current issue of terms of trade in Korea. The study points out that there has been a significant shrink of the terms of trade since 2000. In general, it takes for granted that if the terms of trade becomes worse, it will make a negative impact on the balance of trade and gross national income in real terms. Further, it will enforce to reduce the consumption and investment domestically and finally get worse on the employment. The paper compares original terms of trade with modified one and shows that modified terms of trade is much more improved than that of original one. However the main purpose of the paper is to find out what is the fundamental determinants of the terms of trade in detail and finally is to provide some insights to improve the terms of trade. It turns out that the main cause of the diminution of the terms of trade is due to the falling of the semiconductor's price in export, and an increasing price of the imported oil and of the raw material(iron and steel, grain etc) as well. The regression results show that when the oil price increased by 1 percentage, then the terms of trade was shrank by 0.43 percentage. This study also indicates that the index of export high value is a major force to improve the terms of trade by 0.95 percentage. In order to achieve better terms of trade, it is necessary to make a high quality goods to dominate other countries in export. It is also required to use energy more efficiently and develop an alternative energy.

The paper addresses the current issue of terms of trade in Korea. The study points out that there has been a significant shrink of the terms of trade since 2000. In general, it takes for granted that if the terms of trade becomes worse, it will make a negative impact on the balance of trade and gross national income in real terms. Further, it will enforce to reduce the consumption and investment domestically and finally get worse on the employment. The paper compares original terms of trade with modified one and shows that modified terms of trade is much more improved than that of original one. However the main purpose of the paper is to find out what is the fundamental determinants of the terms of trade in detail and finally is to provide some insights to improve the terms of trade. It turns out that the main cause of the diminution of the terms of trade is due to the falling of the semiconductor's price in export, and an increasing price of the imported oil and of the raw material(iron and steel, grain etc) as well. The regression results show that when the oil price increased by 1 percentage, then the terms of trade was shrank by 0.43 percentage. This study also indicates that the index of export high value is a major force to improve the terms of trade by 0.95 percentage. In order to achieve better terms of trade, it is necessary to make a high quality goods to dominate other countries in export. It is also required to use energy more efficiently and develop an alternative energy.

terms of trade, modified terms of trade, IT products, CRB index, unit root