국제관광객 수요에 미치는 요인들이 너무나 많고 다양하기 때문에 국제관광객을 정확하게 예측하기에는 많은 어려움이 따른다. 본 연구는 우리나라의 순수관광목적의 국제관광객 수요에 영향을 미치는 변동요인을 반영한 모델에 대해 고찰하였다. 관광수지의 변동성을 가장 정확히 추정할 수 있는 변동성모형을 결정하는 데 주된 연구목적을 두었으며, 이와 함께 국제관광시장에 유리한 정보(혹은 뉴스)와 불리한 정보(뉴스)가 도착할 때 뉴스가 여행수지의 변동성에 미치는 영향의 정도에 대하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 본 연구의 순수관광목적 국제관광시장의 변동성 모형 추정결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 계절성 검정을 위해 통상최소자승법(OLS)를 사용한 결과 이들 2개 국제관광 자료에서 부분적인 계절성이 나타났다. 또한 여행수입은 1999년을 정점으로 점진적으로 감소하는 추세에 있는 반면에 여행지출은 외환이후 직후 급격하게 감소한 후 지속적으로 증가추세에 있다. 둘째, 시계열에 대한 정상성 여부를 검증하기 위해 단위근 검정을 실시한 결과 ADF검정에서 단위근이 존재한다는 귀무가설이 1% 유의수준에서 기각되고 있어 시계열의 정상성이 확보되었다. 셋째, 여행지출에 대한 모형의 적합성은 EGARCH, GARCH, TGARCH 모형의 순으로 나타났다. 모형의 적합성이 가장 높은 EGARCH모형은 뉴스충격의 비대칭성은 갖고 있으나 레버리지 효과는 없는 것으로 판정되었다. 넷째, 여행수입에 대한 모형의 적합성은 TGARCH, EGARCH, GARCH모형의 순으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 Inbound 관광객을 대상으로 한 뉴스충격추정을 통한 최적 변동성 모형을 선택한 선행연구와 같은 결과를 나타내고 있다.

This paper is aimed at grasping the effect of Volatility, which is often used on the fields of financial market and trade business, of the Inbound and Outbound tourism of Korea in relation with a method to estimate the demand for the international tourism. Also, I examined into the difference between revenue and expenditure of tourism on the basis of such types of information as good or bad news that exerts an influence on the international tourism market The results that have been presumed about a model of fluctuation in the international tourism market with the object of tour itself are as follows: First, to examine the stability of time series, the examination of unit roots came into practice. As a result, null hypothesis that there exists unit roots in ADF tests was rejected on a level of 1%. Accordingly, the stability of time series was assured. Second, OLS was used for the examination of seasonality. As a result, partly, there was seasonality from two international tourism data. Also, the revenue of tourism has been decreased since 1999, while the expenditure of tourism has been continually increased after it had abruptly been decreased since IMF. Third, for the validity of a model on the tourism expenditure, there were EGARCH, GARCH, TGARCH models in order. It was confirmed that the most effective EGARCH model has news impact about asymmetric, but hasn't the effect of leverage Fourth, for the validity of a model on the tourism revenue, there were TGARCH EGARCH, GARCH models in order. It is showed that this result is similar to the preceding research that selected best volatility model by means of the news shocking presumption on the Inbound tourists

This paper is aimed at grasping the effect of Volatility, which is often used on the fields of financial market and trade business, of the Inbound and Outbound tourism of Korea in relation with a method to estimate the demand for the international tourism. Also, I examined into the difference between revenue and expenditure of tourism on the basis of such types of information as good or bad news that exerts an influence on the international tourism market The results that have been presumed about a model of fluctuation in the international tourism market with the object of tour itself are as follows: First, to examine the stability of time series, the examination of unit roots came into practice. As a result, null hypothesis that there exists unit roots in ADF tests was rejected on a level of 1%. Accordingly, the stability of time series was assured. Second, OLS was used for the examination of seasonality. As a result, partly, there was seasonality from two international tourism data. Also, the revenue of tourism has been decreased since 1999, while the expenditure of tourism has been continually increased after it had abruptly been decreased since IMF. Third, for the validity of a model on the tourism expenditure, there were EGARCH, GARCH, TGARCH models in order. It was confirmed that the most effective EGARCH model has news impact about asymmetric, but hasn't the effect of leverage Fourth, for the validity of a model on the tourism revenue, there were TGARCH EGARCH, GARCH models in order. It is showed that this result is similar to the preceding research that selected best volatility model by means of the news shocking presumption on the Inbound tourists

Information Type, International Tourism, Tourism Market, Volatility, Tourism Income, Tourism Payments