초록 열기/닫기 버튼
The paper estimates regional Okun's law in a hysteretic perspective utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Specifically, it is tested whether there is an asymmetric relationship between unemployment and industrial production in regional labor markets. The findings of the paper are as follows: First, we notice that in all regions Gross Regional Domestic Products sharply decreased and unemployment rate jumped up immediately after IMF management period. However, as of 2003, GRDPs are well over those levels before IMF period. Nevertheless, unemployment rates are still higher than those levels before IMF period. These suggest existence of hysteresis in unemployment rate. Second, ARDL approach to an analysis of asymmetric cointegrating relationships shows that asymmetric cointegrating relationships is not present in static model. However, in dynamic model, asymmetric cointegrating relationships are notable in six or nine regions out of sixteen regions depending on model specifications. Furthermore, Wald test result reveals that hysteresis is present in Seoul, Kwangju, Taejon and Kyongnam.
키워드열기/닫기 버튼
Okun’s Law, Regional Unemployment Rate, Gross Regional Domestic Product(GRDP), Hysteresis, Asymmetric Cointegration攀*Associate professor, Kyungsung University
