본 연구는 노인돌봄서비스의 수요를 체계적으로 추정하고 이에 맞는 서비스 공급량을 고찰하는 기초자료로서 활용되는데 초점을 두었다. 최근 노인복지 서비스의 대상자가 저소득층 노인 중심에서 보편적 대상으로 확대되는 가운데, 과거보다 정확한 전국적 돌봄 서비스 대상자 수요추정이 필요해짐에도 불구하고 수요파악에 치중된 연구들은 상당히 부재한 편이다. 본 연구의 자료는 2008년 기획재정부의 ‘사회서비스 수요․공급실태 정밀조사연구’의 노인 부분을 별도로 사용하였다. 본 자료의 대상자는 2006년 통계청 기준 65세 이상 주민을 모집단으로 하여 전국 층화할당 비례 표본추출방식으로 선정되었다. 돌봄 서비스 수요 추정에 사용된 변수들은 ADL척도에 의한 신체기능상태, 주관적 도움 필요도 및 일상생활보호 필요도로 이 세 변수가 동시에 고려되어 추정되었다. 연구 결과 우리나라 노인의 9.0% 는 돌봄 서비스 정책 대상자로 볼 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 7.7%는 실질적 서비스가 필요한 중증으로 볼 수 있으며 최중증(시설입소 수준)은 인지장애까지 고려했을 때 2.6%정도로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 보편적 노인복지 서비스 지향 최근 정책들의 효율적인 집행과 예산확보에 활용될 수 있으며, 노인복지 정책 연구자들에게 정책개발을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있다.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the demand of care services for elders in a systematic and comprehensive way. For the last decade, elderly care services tend to cover middle- or upper-income elders. To do so, the main criterion of the eligibility in elderly care services have been changed from ‘income or asset’ by a means-test to ‘care needs’ by a functional limitations. Within this context, a study on exact estimation of elderly care services for establishing the efficient public elderly policies. The data of this study come from the national data collected by the project by Ministry of Planning and Budget. Unlike previous study used only by ADLs assessment tools, three variables were used in this study for the exact estimation of care demand. They are functional limitations measured by ADLs/IADLs, subjective care demand, and daily living care levels measured by the tool in this study. The results show that 9% of elders should be considered as the target of elderly care services, and 2.6% of elders are severe enough to be cared by a nursing home. Since 2008 National Long-tem Care Insurance for Elders covers only 3.4% of elders in Korea, other community-based care services should be expanded to remove no-care zone in care for elders. The demand estimates in this study should be utilized by policy-makers and researchers in the field of aging for the efficient of welfare services for elders. Further studies are needed to estimate the future care demand and to collect longitudinal date on functional limitations and care demands.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the demand of care services for elders in a systematic and comprehensive way. For the last decade, elderly care services tend to cover middle- or upper-income elders. To do so, the main criterion of the eligibility in elderly care services have been changed from ‘income or asset’ by a means-test to ‘care needs’ by a functional limitations. Within this context, a study on exact estimation of elderly care services for establishing the efficient public elderly policies. The data of this study come from the national data collected by the project by Ministry of Planning and Budget. Unlike previous study used only by ADLs assessment tools, three variables were used in this study for the exact estimation of care demand. They are functional limitations measured by ADLs/IADLs, subjective care demand, and daily living care levels measured by the tool in this study. The results show that 9% of elders should be considered as the target of elderly care services, and 2.6% of elders are severe enough to be cared by a nursing home. Since 2008 National Long-tem Care Insurance for Elders covers only 3.4% of elders in Korea, other community-based care services should be expanded to remove no-care zone in care for elders. The demand estimates in this study should be utilized by policy-makers and researchers in the field of aging for the efficient of welfare services for elders. Further studies are needed to estimate the future care demand and to collect longitudinal date on functional limitations and care demands.

care service, demand estimation of care service, long-term care, subject care demand