본 연구에서는 경제성장률 예측모형을 통해, 과거와 달리 우리나라 경제구조는 이제 공급요인보다는 수요요인이 더 중요하며, 경제성장률도 소비와 투자 등 내수가 수출보다 더 큰 영향력을 갖는다는 점을 확인하였다. 일자리 창출도 취업유발계수의 변화를 통해, 역시 내수가 수출보다 더 큰 영향을 갖는다는 사실을 확인하였다. 따라서 이제는 내수기반형 성장정책으로 패러다임을 전환해야 한다. 내수기반형 성장정책을 성공적으로 추진하기 위해서는 중립적 노동시장정책을 통해 임금소득과 고용의 안정을 뒷받침하는 한편, 기업소득과 가계소득의 격차해소를 위해 법인세율 인하조치를 철회하거나 오히려 인상해야 하며, 생산적 복지 확대정책을 추진해야 한다.

This study is aimed at analyzing the paradigm of export-oriented policy and the paradigm of domestic demand based policy for economic growth. I conducted multiple regression analysis on the relationships among economic growth rate and the increase rates of demand side variables including domestic consumption, investment, export. The empirical analysis shows that economic growth rate has very closely related with the increase rates of demand side variables since the Declaration of Democratization. According to the outcome of the empirical analysis, it shows that consumption has the greatest effect on the Korean GDP growth rate, followed by exports and finally investment. The time has come for Korea to transform its export-led economic policy into domestic consumption-led economic policy. First of all the government needs to normalize the labor market, to revoke the generous tax cuts given to the rich, and instead implement an increasing tax rate on higher income brackets, and increase welfare expenditures.

This study is aimed at analyzing the paradigm of export-oriented policy and the paradigm of domestic demand based policy for economic growth. I conducted multiple regression analysis on the relationships among economic growth rate and the increase rates of demand side variables including domestic consumption, investment, export. The empirical analysis shows that economic growth rate has very closely related with the increase rates of demand side variables since the Declaration of Democratization. According to the outcome of the empirical analysis, it shows that consumption has the greatest effect on the Korean GDP growth rate, followed by exports and finally investment. The time has come for Korea to transform its export-led economic policy into domestic consumption-led economic policy. First of all the government needs to normalize the labor market, to revoke the generous tax cuts given to the rich, and instead implement an increasing tax rate on higher income brackets, and increase welfare expenditures.

OECD BLI, quintile, Corruption Perception Index, income disparity, chaebol reformation