본 연구에서는 고용과 복지의 선순환을 위한 제도적 조건에 관한 이론적 논의를 검토하고 최근 20여 년간 OECD 주요 국가의 고용-복지 체제 변화에 대해 분석한다. 구체적으로 고용-복지의 선순환이 개별 정책의 효과적 실행으로 가능한 것이 아니라 일자리와 복지 관련 제도들의 보완성을 담보할 수 있는 제도적 조건을 구축하는 데에 그 단초가 있음을 이론적으로 논의한다. 또한 최근 20여 년 동안 진행된 OECD 주요 국가 고용-복지체제의 변화를 복지국가 체제별로 실증적으로 비교, 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 보편적 복지와 조정시장경제를 결합한 사회민주주의 국가에서 여전히 고용-복지 성과가 가장 나았으며, 보수주의 국가가 그 뒤를 잇고 자유주의 국가는 괜찮은 일자리와 복지국가 관대성 측면에서 성과가 가장 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 더불어 본 연구에서는 고용-복지 선순환의 제도적 조건을 구축하기 위해서는 일자리 창출과 정부재정 건전성 유지, 사회적 평등 달성이라는 삼중 모순을 해결할 수 있어야 함을 강조하였다. 자유주의 국가에서는 일자리 창출이 저임금 부문 서비스업을 위주로 진행되면서 생산성 격차가 확대되어 괜찮은 일자리 창출이라는 거시 목표를 달성하는데 부정적인 영향을 주고 있음을 확인하였다. 한편 보수주의 국가에서는 정부재정수지 균형 요구를 과도하게 수용하면 괜찮은 일자리 창출이 저해될 가능성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 한국의 고용-복지체제가 자유주의의 잔여적 복지국가체제의 경로를 회피해야 할 필요가 있음을 시사하고 있다. 더불어 한국 고용-복지체제의 형성과 발전 과정이 보수주의 국가와 유사한 점이 있기 때문에 재정수지 균형 요구에 과다하게 경도된다면 괜찮은 일자리 창출이 저해될 가능성이 있다는 점에 주목해야 한다.

This research examines theoretical discussion on the institutional arrangements for the virtuous circle between employment and welfare, and analyzes changes in employment-welfare systems across 16 OECD countries for the last 20 years. Specifically, it argues that a virtuous circle between employment and welfare can be established not by implementing policy instruments per se, but by building up institutional arrangements that guarantee the complementarities between labor market institutions and social policy. It then performs an empirical comparison of how the transformations in the employment-welfare systems of 16 OECD countries have developed over the last two decades. Results show that social democratic countries that combine universal welfare systems with coordinated market economy performed best in terms of employment and welfare outcomes, followed by the continental European countries, with liberal welfare states lagging behind in terms of decent work and welfare state generosity. In addition, this work puts an emphasis on resolving the so-called trilemma of job creation, budget restraint, and social equality to consolidate institutional conditions for a virtuous circle of employment and welfare. In liberal states, job creation has been concentrated in the low paid service sector with an increasing productivity gap between sectors, therefore having negative impacts on sustaining decent work, while conservative countries have experienced difficulty in creating decent work opportunities to the extent they accept government budget consolidation. These result cast practical implications that the Korean employment-welfare system needs to depart from the residual welfare states routes of welfare development, and that potential for job creation could be harnessed if Korea inclines towards the pressures for budget restraint given that it has resemblance with conservative welfare states in regard to its original development.

This research examines theoretical discussion on the institutional arrangements for the virtuous circle between employment and welfare, and analyzes changes in employment-welfare systems across 16 OECD countries for the last 20 years. Specifically, it argues that a virtuous circle between employment and welfare can be established not by implementing policy instruments per se, but by building up institutional arrangements that guarantee the complementarities between labor market institutions and social policy. It then performs an empirical comparison of how the transformations in the employment-welfare systems of 16 OECD countries have developed over the last two decades. Results show that social democratic countries that combine universal welfare systems with coordinated market economy performed best in terms of employment and welfare outcomes, followed by the continental European countries, with liberal welfare states lagging behind in terms of decent work and welfare state generosity. In addition, this work puts an emphasis on resolving the so-called trilemma of job creation, budget restraint, and social equality to consolidate institutional conditions for a virtuous circle of employment and welfare. In liberal states, job creation has been concentrated in the low paid service sector with an increasing productivity gap between sectors, therefore having negative impacts on sustaining decent work, while conservative countries have experienced difficulty in creating decent work opportunities to the extent they accept government budget consolidation. These result cast practical implications that the Korean employment-welfare system needs to depart from the residual welfare states routes of welfare development, and that potential for job creation could be harnessed if Korea inclines towards the pressures for budget restraint given that it has resemblance with conservative welfare states in regard to its original development.

virtuous circle of employment and welfare, decent work, generous welfare state, institutional complementarity