북한이 매년 1월 1일 발표하는 신년 공동사설은 북한의 경제정책 구도를 분석하고 정책 방향을 전망하는 데에 중요한 자료의 역할을 한다. 신년 공동사설에 나타난 올해 북한의 경제정책 구도를 살펴보면 목표는 여전히 경제강국 건설이며, 당면과제로 선행부문 정상화 및 인민생활 향상을 제시하고 있다. 특히 ‘인민생활 제일주의’라는 용어를 사용할 정도로 주민들의 실제 생활에 초점을 맞추고 있는 것은 이례적인 일이다. 이는 그만큼 대부분 주민의 일상생활이 어려움에 처해 있다는 반증이며, 주민생활이 향상되지 않는다면 경제강국이라는 목표는 실현될 수도 없을 뿐만 아니라 오히려 기존의 체제유지조차 어려워질 것이라는 우려를 바탕으로 하고 있는 것이다. 한편 이를 당면과제를 실현하기 위한 추진전략으로는 외부자본 유치 및 생산효율 제고를 들고 있다. 이에 따라 대남.대외관계 개선, 특히 남북경협에 대한 기대가 과거 어느 때보다 두드러지게 나타나고 있다. 현재 북한의 상황에서 이와 같은 전략은 당연하고 타당한 것으로 판단되나, 성공 가능성은 낮은 것으로 분석된다. 북한 역시 그러한 가능성에 대비해서 자력갱생을 크게 강조하고 있다. 한편 올해의 중반 경에는 7.1 경제관리개선조치에 이은 추가적인 경제조치가 등장할 가능성이 높은 것으로 전망된다.

North Korean new year's editorial provides important materials to analyze the structure of economic policies and to predict future policy directions of North Korea. The construction of 'Economically Strong Country' is the key objective of North Korean economic policies. In order to achieve this objective, North Korea presents two major tasks this year; the normalization of 'preceding' industries such as electric, coal, and metal industries and the improvement of people's living standard. Emphasizing the 'preceding' industries is traditional, however, focusing on the quality of lives is very unusual. This implies that economic condition is still bad and therefore the North Korean authority understands the construction of 'Economically Strong Country' and the maintenance of socialist system cannot be realized without making people's daily lives better. The strategies to fulfil these tasks are to induce foreign capital and to improve production efficiency. Thus, this year's editorial shows very strong and high expectation for expansion of inter-Korean economic cooperation. The tasks and strategies are evaluated to be reasonable and adequate under the current circumstances North Korea is facing. However, the prospects for success are negative since all these are heavily dependent on the progress of the nuclear issues and fundamental reform of the system. Preparing for the possibility of failure, therefore, North Korea is emphasizing self-regeneration on one hand. On the other hand, it is very likely that additional economic measures following July 1 measures in 2002 will be announced in the latter half of this year.

North Korean new year's editorial provides important materials to analyze the structure of economic policies and to predict future policy directions of North Korea. The construction of 'Economically Strong Country' is the key objective of North Korean economic policies. In order to achieve this objective, North Korea presents two major tasks this year; the normalization of 'preceding' industries such as electric, coal, and metal industries and the improvement of people's living standard. Emphasizing the 'preceding' industries is traditional, however, focusing on the quality of lives is very unusual. This implies that economic condition is still bad and therefore the North Korean authority understands the construction of 'Economically Strong Country' and the maintenance of socialist system cannot be realized without making people's daily lives better. The strategies to fulfil these tasks are to induce foreign capital and to improve production efficiency. Thus, this year's editorial shows very strong and high expectation for expansion of inter-Korean economic cooperation. The tasks and strategies are evaluated to be reasonable and adequate under the current circumstances North Korea is facing. However, the prospects for success are negative since all these are heavily dependent on the progress of the nuclear issues and fundamental reform of the system. Preparing for the possibility of failure, therefore, North Korea is emphasizing self-regeneration on one hand. On the other hand, it is very likely that additional economic measures following July 1 measures in 2002 will be announced in the latter half of this year.

new year's editorial, North Korean economic policy, inducement of foreign capital, improvement of living standard