본 논문은 “반론기술”을 이용하여 원자력발전에 대한 일본인의 여론의 동향을 탐구하였다. 먼저, 일반 여론조사 방법을 사용하여 일본 전국 성인남녀 3,360명에게 원자력발전에 대한 의견을 물었다. 그 다음, 스플릿(split) 샘플링하여 나눈 네 그룹 중 두 그룹의 찬성자와 반대자에게는 원자력발전의 장단점에 대한 정보를, 나머지 두 그룹에게는 원자력발전과 무관한 표면적 정보를 제공하여 반론을 시킨 후 그들의 의견을 재차 물어 의견의 변화 양상과 변화에 미치는 요인을 찾고자 시도하였다. 연구결과에 의하면, 1차 테스트의 의견 중 약 30%가 반론에 직면해 변화를 보였고, 이 변화에 영향을 주는 요인은 ‘초기의견’, ‘원자력발전과 정치에 대한 관심’, ‘정치지식’, ‘원자력발전에 대한 정보인지’로 드러났다. 즉, 응답자의 초기의견이 반대이거나, 정치와 원자력발전에 대한 관심과 지식, 그리고 정보인지가 높으면 높을수록 의견이 변화하지 않는 경향을 보였다. 한편, 제시한 반론, 즉 ‘내용이 있는 반론(full argument)’과 ‘표면적 반론(empty argument)’이 의견변화에 미치는 영향은 무의미한 것으로 드러나 원자력발전에 대한 일본인의 여론이 상당부분 일관됨을 알 수 있다.

This study has conducted an experimental survey on Japanese Nuclear Power by using a dynamic method that makes it possible to exchange political opinions in order to accurately measure public opinion and gain exact results. This study conducted the following steps: First, interviewees are asked if they are in favor of or against nuclear power. Then they are provided with “full arguments” and “empty arguments” as counter arguments, after reading the counter argument, they are asked their opinions again. This study was conducted with much anticipation as to how their first opinions, their interest in politics and nuclear power, their knowledge of politics and their information perception of nuclear power, are influenced when confronted with a counter argument. The results of our analysis showed that the interviewees with higher interest, higher knowledge of politics and nuclear power, and higher information perception find it harder to change their opinions. However, there is no significant effect on the interviewees of each side after presenting the “full argument” and the “empty argument”. This means that Japanese public opinion on nuclear power is pretty consistent.

This study has conducted an experimental survey on Japanese Nuclear Power by using a dynamic method that makes it possible to exchange political opinions in order to accurately measure public opinion and gain exact results. This study conducted the following steps: First, interviewees are asked if they are in favor of or against nuclear power. Then they are provided with “full arguments” and “empty arguments” as counter arguments, after reading the counter argument, they are asked their opinions again. This study was conducted with much anticipation as to how their first opinions, their interest in politics and nuclear power, their knowledge of politics and their information perception of nuclear power, are influenced when confronted with a counter argument. The results of our analysis showed that the interviewees with higher interest, higher knowledge of politics and nuclear power, and higher information perception find it harder to change their opinions. However, there is no significant effect on the interviewees of each side after presenting the “full argument” and the “empty argument”. This means that Japanese public opinion on nuclear power is pretty consistent.

public opinion, opinion survey, counter argument, nuclear power, the change of opinion