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To assess the prospects for peace on the Korean peninsula we must understand the factors that have contributed to tension and to détente in recent decades. Whatever policy goals we pursue, it would be helpful to know how these factors have operated in the past. The most relevant factors can be analyzed under three headings: material hard power; fortuna, and the intangibles of ideas and free will. This essay reviews examples of how these factors have contributed to conflict and--less often--reduced tensions on the Korean peninsula. No single factor explains the ups and downs in North-South relations and the six-party talks in recent years. No single explanation accounts for developments in the past, but the record shows that ideas and determined individuals have sometimes overcome the thrust of material forces and neutered the vagaries of time and chance. In short, free will has often outweighed both forces and fortuna. Where there is a will (on all sides), paths to mutual gain can sometimes be developed.
