핵심적 국가이익으로 ‘안보’와 ‘번영’을 대외정책의 목표로 삼는 것은 북한도 예외가 아니다. 탈냉전 이후 북한은 미국에 안전보장을, 한국에 경제적 지원을 의존하는 대외전략을 일관되게 추진했으나, 주기적으로 정부가 교체되는 한국과 미국으로부터 소기의 성과를 얻지 못했다. 2009년 이후 북미갈등 국면과 남북관계 중단 상황에서, 북한은 중국과의 협력관계를 통해 안전보장과 경제지원의 상당 부분이 대체 가능함을 실감했다. 이를 계기로 북한은 새로운 대외전략을 모색하게 되는바, 안전보장은 미국과 중국 사이에서, 경제협력은 한국과 중국 사이에서 병행하다가 상황과 조건에 따라 선택적으로 활용하는 이른바 ‘선택적 병행’ 전략으로 변화하고 있다. 대외전략 변화와 함께 대남정책 역시 지속과 변화의 모습을 보이고 있다. 기본적으로 북한의 대남정책은 체제유지를 위한 대미대결의 우군이자 경제지원자로서 남북관계를 유지하되, 최근에는 대남도발과 군사적 불균형도 서슴지 않음으로써 ‘화해협력과 남북대결의 선택적 병행’ 전략으로 변화하고 있다. 북한의 대외전략과 대남정책의 변화는 우리에게 대북정책의 변화를 요구하고 있다. 북한이 고개 숙이고 나올 것이라는 자의적 갑을관계론의 현실적 교정을 필요로 하는 동시에, 남북관계와 한반도에 갇힌 단순한 셈법이 아니라 동북아 질서와 복잡한 양자관계를 고려해야 하는 고차 방정식의 대북정책을 필요로 한다.

North Korea is no exception to the rule that the aims of foreign policy include national interests such as security and prosperity. After the end of the post-Cold War era, North Korea has continued to employ a foreign strategy aimed at eliciting security assurances from the U.S. and economic support from South Korea. However, despite leveraging the nuclear card to gain a security guarantee from the U.S. and bargaining with South Korea to expand inter-Korean economic cooperation, North Korea's foreign strategy aims have been frustrated. After 2009, amidst escalating tensions with the U.S. and a suspension of inter-Korean cooperation, North Korea realized that it could resolve North Korea's security issue and fulfill much of its need for economic aid by enhancing its relationship with China. In this process, North Korea began to explore new foreign strategy that selectively utilized its relations with multiple countries depending on the need and the situation in pursuit of security and economic benefits. This is evolved into a so-called strategy of 'selective parallelism' where it went between the U.S. and China for regime security and South Korea and China for economic cooperation. As part of this change, North Korea's South Korea policy is showing signs of both consistency and change. In the interests of contributing to the sustainability of its regime, North Korea has maintained relations with the South Korea in order to receive economic support and to draw support during its confrontation with the U.S. However, it appears that North Korea's South Korea policy has changed to one of 'selective parallelism between cooperation and confrontation.' This change in North Korea's foreign strategy and South Korea policy necessitates change in our North Korea policy.

North Korea is no exception to the rule that the aims of foreign policy include national interests such as security and prosperity. After the end of the post-Cold War era, North Korea has continued to employ a foreign strategy aimed at eliciting security assurances from the U.S. and economic support from South Korea. However, despite leveraging the nuclear card to gain a security guarantee from the U.S. and bargaining with South Korea to expand inter-Korean economic cooperation, North Korea's foreign strategy aims have been frustrated. After 2009, amidst escalating tensions with the U.S. and a suspension of inter-Korean cooperation, North Korea realized that it could resolve North Korea's security issue and fulfill much of its need for economic aid by enhancing its relationship with China. In this process, North Korea began to explore new foreign strategy that selectively utilized its relations with multiple countries depending on the need and the situation in pursuit of security and economic benefits. This is evolved into a so-called strategy of 'selective parallelism' where it went between the U.S. and China for regime security and South Korea and China for economic cooperation. As part of this change, North Korea's South Korea policy is showing signs of both consistency and change. In the interests of contributing to the sustainability of its regime, North Korea has maintained relations with the South Korea in order to receive economic support and to draw support during its confrontation with the U.S. However, it appears that North Korea's South Korea policy has changed to one of 'selective parallelism between cooperation and confrontation.' This change in North Korea's foreign strategy and South Korea policy necessitates change in our North Korea policy.

Security and Prosperity, Foreign Strategy, North Korea's South Korea Policy, Selective Parallelism