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Deepening economic ties across the Taiwan Strait are widely believed by analysts and scholars to be a stabilizing force in cross-Strait political relations. Yet within the broader international relations literature, the relationship between economic interdependence and military conflict continues to be controversial. I examine the impact of growing cross-Strait economic links on the likelihood of cross-Strait military conflict within the context of this broader literature. I describe three separate causal mechanismsidentified in the existing literaturethrough which economic ties could promote peace, and consider the extent to which these processes are operating in the Taiwan Strait case. While I do not rule out the possibility that economic integration across the Strait makes a military confrontation less likely, I show that the evidence in support of such a proposition is ambiguous.


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China; Taiwan; economic interdependence; trade; conflict