2008년 김정일 건강이상설 이후 북한의 후계 문제는 초미의 관심으로 등장했다. 국내의 이 분야 연구는 대부분이 첩보성 정보에 근거한 3대 세습과 김정일의 세 아들 가운데 누가 후계자로 될 것인지에 초점을 두고 있다. 본 논문은 북한 후계 문제에 대한 보다 엄밀한 이론적 방법론을 시론적으로 모색하는 데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 주체사상의 혁명적 수령론과 후계자론을 이론적 근거로 하고 북한 후계 확립의 유일한 사례인 김정일 국방위원장으로의 후계 완성을 경험적 근거로 교차 비교하는 방식을 취했다. 주체사상에서는 수령의 사상과 영도의 계승과 그를 위한 조직사상적 기초와 영도체계의 준비를 후계자에게 요구한다. 따라서 김정일 시대의 당면 국가목표인 강성대국론과 실현방도인 선군정치 속에서 사상과 영도의 두 측면에서 자질과 능력을 검증받으면서 북한의 차기 후계자는 부상될 것으로 본다. 이런 측면에서 북한에서 아직 후계자는 결정되지 않았거나, 설령 결정되었더라도 복잡한 검증 절차를 남겨 놓고 있어 최종 결과는 유동적인 것으로 본다. 3대 세습, 제3자론, 집단지도체제 등 추측성 예단보다 북한 후계 문제 연구에서 더욱 중요한 것은 북한의 후계 문제의 해결이 순조롭게 될 것인지의 여부에 따라, 북한체제의 운명은 물론 한반도 및 동북아 상황 전반에 커다란 영향을 미칠 것인바, 이 문제에 대한 예측이다. 따라서 현재 북한 후계 문제에 대한 연구의 방향은 북한의 기본 노선과 정책 및 현실 대응과정과 북한 내부 권력구조 변화 사이의 관계를 면밀히 연구할 것이 요구된다. 이를 통해 북한 후계 문제의 전망뿐만 아니라, 북한연구 전반에서 과학성과 객관성을 제고하여 올바른 대북정책 방향도 강구할 수 있게 될 것이기 때문이다.

The succession of sovereign power is connected directly with the regime security in socialist states. In particular, the succession of sovereign power in North Korea that has built on the Chief Magistrate system is the most important issue that can forecast the henceforth direction of North Korea's state policy. For all that, most studies in South Korea on the succession problem of North Korea have limits that those draw deduction from unconfirmed intelligences. This paper aims at groping for an objective and scientific research method on the succession of sovereign power in North Korea. For this propose, this paper adopts the doctrine of revolutionary Chief Magistrate and it's successor in Ju-Che Ideology as a principle and the succession process of sovereign power to Kim Jong Il as the measure of practical comparison. According to Ju-Che Ideology, the nomination of successor is the duty as well as authority of the Chief Magistrate and the successor must have the allegiance to the Chief Magistrate as the first sign and has to be demonstrative of one's disposition and ability to govern. Therefore under the present conditions in North Korea, the successor must exhibit one's disposition and ability at the construction of ‘the Strong and Great country’ which is the immediate goal of North Korea and ‘the politics of Military Priority’ that is the way of it's achievement. And further, the collective intention of ‘the Committee for National Defence’ which has been defined as the supreme directive organization on the military affairs of state sovereignty at the amended Constitution in 1998 will certainly exerted influence on Kim Jong Il's decision on his successor. In conclusion, contentions on hereditary, a third person, a collective leadership system that have been contended in South Korea about the succession problem in North Korea seem to be against the heart of the matter. It is more important issue than foretelling who, when, how to be nominated as a successor that we grasp the facing national goal of North Korea and the measure for it's realization and make a minute observation on the person who shows one´s disposition and ability in that process.

The succession of sovereign power is connected directly with the regime security in socialist states. In particular, the succession of sovereign power in North Korea that has built on the Chief Magistrate system is the most important issue that can forecast the henceforth direction of North Korea's state policy. For all that, most studies in South Korea on the succession problem of North Korea have limits that those draw deduction from unconfirmed intelligences. This paper aims at groping for an objective and scientific research method on the succession of sovereign power in North Korea. For this propose, this paper adopts the doctrine of revolutionary Chief Magistrate and it's successor in Ju-Che Ideology as a principle and the succession process of sovereign power to Kim Jong Il as the measure of practical comparison. According to Ju-Che Ideology, the nomination of successor is the duty as well as authority of the Chief Magistrate and the successor must have the allegiance to the Chief Magistrate as the first sign and has to be demonstrative of one's disposition and ability to govern. Therefore under the present conditions in North Korea, the successor must exhibit one's disposition and ability at the construction of ‘the Strong and Great country’ which is the immediate goal of North Korea and ‘the politics of Military Priority’ that is the way of it's achievement. And further, the collective intention of ‘the Committee for National Defence’ which has been defined as the supreme directive organization on the military affairs of state sovereignty at the amended Constitution in 1998 will certainly exerted influence on Kim Jong Il's decision on his successor. In conclusion, contentions on hereditary, a third person, a collective leadership system that have been contended in South Korea about the succession problem in North Korea seem to be against the heart of the matter. It is more important issue than foretelling who, when, how to be nominated as a successor that we grasp the facing national goal of North Korea and the measure for it's realization and make a minute observation on the person who shows one´s disposition and ability in that process.

the succession problem, the doctrine on ‘Strong and Great country’, the politics of Military Priority, the doctrine on revolutionary Chief Magistrate, the doctrine on the successor