본 연구에서는 CGE모형을 이용하여 한-아세안 FTA 서비스무역협정의 체결이 한국 경제에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 2007년 11월 21일 서명한 한-아세안 FTA의 서비스무역협정에 근거하여 한국과 아세안 회원국 (태국 제외)이 합의한 양허안에 근거하여 산출한 서비스의 관세상당치(tariff equivalents of services)를 제거하는 경우, 한국 경제에 미치게 될 파급효과를 정량적으로 분석하였다. 거시경제적 영향을 보면, 한국의 실질GDP는 0.04% 증가하고, 후생수준은 1억6백만 달러 높아질 것으로 전망되며, 1인당 후생수준은 0.03% 증가할 것으로 전망된다. 한국의 對세계 수출은 1억7천9백만 달러 증가하고 수입은 약 1억9천1백만 달러 증가하여 1천2백만 달러의 무역수지 적자를 기록할 것으로 예상된다. 한편 한국의 對아세안 수출은 1억8백만 달러 증가하고, 수입은 2억7천8백만 달러 증가하여 한국은 對아세안 1억7천만 달러의 무역수지 적자를 기록하게 될 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 서비스산업의 다양한 규제 등의 교역장벽이 철폐되면서 서비스의 수입가격이 인하되고 수입 중간재를 사용하는 많은 기업의 생산비용이 인하되어 궁극적으로 생산증가, 소득증가의 선순환으로 이어져 궁극적으로 실질 경제성장을 가져올 것으로 분석되었다.

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential impacts on the Korean economy of Agreement on Trade in Services Under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Among the Governments of the Republic of Korea and the Member Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which was signed on 21 November 2007 using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Tariff equivalents of services were calculated on the basis of concessions made in the Agreement between Korea and ASEAN member countries. The empirical analysis shows that Korea is to get an additional gain in real GDP of 0.04 percent and in welfare of US$106 million, with an increase in per capita utility of 0.03 percent. Total exports and imports of Korea are to rise by US$179 million and $191 million, respectively, causing a trade deficit of $12 million. Korea's exports to ASEAN member countries will increase by $108 million and Korea's imports from them will rise by $278 million, giving rise to a trade deficit of $170 million.

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential impacts on the Korean economy of Agreement on Trade in Services Under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Among the Governments of the Republic of Korea and the Member Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which was signed on 21 November 2007 using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Tariff equivalents of services were calculated on the basis of concessions made in the Agreement between Korea and ASEAN member countries. The empirical analysis shows that Korea is to get an additional gain in real GDP of 0.04 percent and in welfare of US$106 million, with an increase in per capita utility of 0.03 percent. Total exports and imports of Korea are to rise by US$179 million and $191 million, respectively, causing a trade deficit of $12 million. Korea's exports to ASEAN member countries will increase by $108 million and Korea's imports from them will rise by $278 million, giving rise to a trade deficit of $170 million.

Korea-ASEAN FTA, Agreement on Trade in Services, CGE model, Macroeconomic and microeconomic Impacts